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[NL20-NL50] #5 55 nl25

    • ilidek
      Joined: 06.07.2010 Posts: 3,093
      BTN: $10.66 (42.6 bb)
      Hero (SB): $27.01 (108 bb)
      BB: $41.75 (167 bb)
      MP: $25.61 (102.4 bb)
      CO: $11.36 (45.4 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is SB with 5:club: 5:spade:
      3 folds, Hero raises to $0.50, BB calls $0.25

      Flop: ($1) J:club: 5:diamond: 2:club: (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.80, BB calls $0.80

      Turn: ($2.60) 4:spade: (2 players)
      Hero bets $2.30, BB calls $2.30

      River: ($7.20) 9:diamond: (2 players)
      Hero bets $5.70, BB raises to $14.15, Hero calls $8.45

      I think I should push river Guy is 35/27 fold BvB 57% 3b vs SB 10% (I was afraid of higher set but when he has 10% 3b for sure he 3b JJ vs steal) af% R 24 WTS 26 WW$d 58 5,4k hands
  • 1 reply
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779

      River boils down to whether we have value from his entire range or not. What does he play like that?

      22/44 (3 out of 6 combos) - I think he is way likelier to raise Flop or Turn with a set so we might have to discount
      A3 (16 combos)
      J9 (9 combos)
      99 (maybe 1-2 out of 3 combos)? That may double float Flop and Turn to bluff catch vs our Ace high double barrels

      22/44 (6 combos)
      A3 (16 combos)
      J9 (9 combos)
      99 (0 combos)

      We don't even have a value shove here, when we beat 15 combos and lose to 16 combos. If we had a more conservative estimate, I think it's very clear that we should be flatting here. I didn't even include stuff like 36s in villain's range.

      So I actually prefer your play. Nice hand.