This site uses cookies to improve your browsing experience. By continuing to browse the website, you accept such cookies. For more details and to change your settings, see our Cookie Policy and Privacy Policy. Close

[NL20-NL50] #5 55 nl25

    • ilidek
      ilidek
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.07.2010 Posts: 3,093
      BTN: $10.66 (42.6 bb)
      Hero (SB): $27.01 (108 bb)
      BB: $41.75 (167 bb)
      MP: $25.61 (102.4 bb)
      CO: $11.36 (45.4 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is SB with 5:club: 5:spade:
      3 folds, Hero raises to $0.50, BB calls $0.25

      Flop: ($1) J:club: 5:diamond: 2:club: (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.80, BB calls $0.80

      Turn: ($2.60) 4:spade: (2 players)
      Hero bets $2.30, BB calls $2.30

      River: ($7.20) 9:diamond: (2 players)
      Hero bets $5.70, BB raises to $14.15, Hero calls $8.45

      I think I should push river Guy is 35/27 fold BvB 57% 3b vs SB 10% (I was afraid of higher set but when he has 10% 3b for sure he 3b JJ vs steal) af% R 24 WTS 26 WW$d 58 5,4k hands
  • 1 reply
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779
      Hi.

      River boils down to whether we have value from his entire range or not. What does he play like that?

      22/44 (3 out of 6 combos) - I think he is way likelier to raise Flop or Turn with a set so we might have to discount
      A3 (16 combos)
      J9 (9 combos)
      99 (maybe 1-2 out of 3 combos)? That may double float Flop and Turn to bluff catch vs our Ace high double barrels

      Optimistic
      22/44 (6 combos)
      A3 (16 combos)
      J9 (9 combos)
      99 (0 combos)

      We don't even have a value shove here, when we beat 15 combos and lose to 16 combos. If we had a more conservative estimate, I think it's very clear that we should be flatting here. I didn't even include stuff like 36s in villain's range.

      So I actually prefer your play. Nice hand.