[NL20-NL50] AKs flush

    • zumpar
      zumpar
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.02.2012 Posts: 1,185
      i dont usually call 3bets pre OOP, but this guy is a pretty big nit and i think folding is out of the question given the positions

      18/14 3b:3 AF:1.7 cb flop:50, cb turn: 1/1

      turn is kinda tricky cause there is no room to c/r withough going all in imo (even if there was im not sure its the best line) and if i somehow c/minr it just looks extra strong

      also, if he has AQ/KQ/ sets which is the most likely part of his range, he is probably calling now more often then on the river is some scare card hits


      and if i just c/c he might c back river, if i donk the river, he will fod pretty much everything and will only call Qx which i lose value against

      + my big turn c/r might look like some draw since i dont really have many flushes here, pretty much only AQss and KQss and i certainly would have played sets differently



      raise and get it in otf is another option i guess but i dont wanna fold his overcards/air i am a huge fav against


      iPoker - $0.20 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      BB: $25.22
      UTG: $24.00
      MP: $6.34
      Hero (CO): $28.78
      BTN: $36.18
      SB: $30.98

      SB posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.20

      Pre Flop: (pot: $0.30) Hero has A:spade: K:spade:

      fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.60, BTN raises to $1.80, fold, fold, Hero calls $1.20

      Flop: ($3.90, 2 players) 8:diamond: T:spade: 9:spade:
      Hero checks, BTN bets $2.40, Hero calls $2.40

      Turn: ($8.70, 2 players) J:spade:
      Hero checks, BTN bets $6.52, Hero raises to $24.58 and is all-in, BTN calls $18.06

      River: ($57.86, 2 players) T:club:

      Hero shows A:spade: K:spade: (Flush, Ace High) (Pre 75%, Flop 81%, Turn 98%)
      BTN shows K:club: Q:spade: (Straight, King High) (Pre 25%, Flop 19%, Turn 2%)
      Hero wins $54.97
  • 2 replies
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi Zumpar,

      Sample of hands is key, over what sample is he 18/14 with 3b of 3%? If it's a bigger sample look specifically at his 3-bet from BTN vs CO. HM lets you do that and it's way more accurate than overall 3-bet.

      The value of 4-betting AK preflop does not come from just stacking off but rather from the dead money you collect when he folds.

      So we win a bunch when he folds and if he ships it we still, on average, have enough equity to at least breakeven so we actually make money in the long run.

      Now, we are a bit deep here so I think we can still 4-bet but most likely 4-bet/fold. Calling is an option with more info on villain but you are still playing OOP versus presumably a stronger range.

      As played I doubt he barrels 3/4 of the pot without at least a Qx in his range so shipping the turn is perfectly fine. Even sets and overpairs may check back or bet/fold small.
    • zumpar
      zumpar
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.02.2012 Posts: 1,185
      i have 500 hands on him and his 3b vs CO open (from any position though) is 10%