[NL20-NL50] NL20 SH JTs royal flush pure nutz ZOMFG / missed value?

    • NightShadePMC
      Joined: 16.11.2010 Posts: 800
      IPoker, $0.10/$0.20 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      BB: $7.35 (36.7 bb)
      Hero (UTG): $20.72 (103.6 bb)
      MP: $34.59 (173 bb)
      CO: $20.72 (103.6 bb)
      BTN: $21.89 (109.5 bb)
      SB: $20 (100 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is UTG with T J
      Hero raises to $0.70, 2 folds, BTN calls $0.70, 2 folds

      Flop: ($1.70) K Q 3 (2 players)
      Hero bets $1.28, BTN calls $1.28

      Turn: ($4.26) T (2 players)
      Hero bets $3, BTN calls $3

      River: ($10.26) A (2 players)
      Hero bets $6, BTN calls $6

      villain is fish 67/13, 1,5AF 80h

      What do u think about my river sizing. Should I shove river?
      At the time I wanted to still get value from his Kx, maybe Qx

      But now I am thinking there are quite a few hands that pay me off when I shove, like KJ, QJ, JT, lower flushes, maybe some 2pairs
  • 1 reply
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779

      Turn: I don't exactly think we can bet for value but we just have so much equity vs almost any hand so I think it's fine.

      River: What hands do you want to target here?

      1) Check/raise: Max value vs straights and flushes
      2) Betting 65% pot: value from twopairs/sets/straights/flushes
      3) Overbetting: Better than CR if he plays ultrapassive with straights

      IMO there is just way more value to be had by betting larger and gaining more value from a smaller number of hands. He seems to be slightly on the passive side but I probably prefer check/raise especially if he has a higher river AF. If he is more passive (AF<1) then I would just bet 2X pot here (if he has a high WTSD of 30%+)