[NL20-NL50] NL20 SH JJ vs CO unknown

    • SPeedFANat1c
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,074
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.20(BB) Replayer
      Hero ($22.76)
      BB ($19.11)
      UTG ($32.37)
      UTG+1 ($19)
      CO ($20.18)
      BTN ($20.20)

      Dealt to Hero J:diamond: J:heart:

      fold, fold, CO raises to $0.60, fold, Hero raises to $2.20, fold, CO raises to $5, Hero raises to $22.76 (AI), CO calls $15.18 (AI)


      He is full stacked, so could be reg.

      To 3bet/5bet as I know he needs to have 4bet range 5%+

      WIthout knowing - maybe this is a spew, there are players who 4bet light, but not as much, so maybe 3bet/fold.

      He is in postition, so he is more likely to call than 4bet.

      If I 3bet shove - then it means I can do that wih any PP practically, can't I?

      OK vs QQ+, AK equity with JJ and 22 differs by 2% so maybe for big pot 2% is big difference.
  • 5 replies
    • supeyrio
      Joined: 11.11.2009 Posts: 3,106
      2% is a big difference and 2% will add up in the long run.
      in any case, i wld usually get JJ in in such spots.
      people are usually wide in CO.
      the thing is even if we make a mistake with JJ due to the lack of info, its usually nt a big mistake. but if we make a mistkae with 22, its gonna cost us more in the long run! example, we assume villian 4b QQ+ AK for value but if his range there is actually 77+ AQ(exaggerate), we get owned
    • SPeedFANat1c
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,074
      yeah, they are wide in opening, but in reality I don't see them 4beting very often. At least I don't notice, at this limit. Thats why I am not sure if this is profit long term.
    • SPeedFANat1c
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,074
      I did the EV calculation assuming 100bb stacks and him shoving AK, QQ+:

      there are 3 outcomes:

      I win vs his alling range P = 36%, win 115bb
      I loose vs his allin range P = 64%, win - 85bb
      He folds, so I win P = ? ( I expereimented in excel and got 33% so EV would be close to 0), win 39bb

      0 = 0.36 * 115 + 0.64*(-85) + P * 39

      0 = 41.4 - 54.4 + P*39

      P (that he folds for breakeven) = 33%

      now what range he should have for 4bet to fold 1/3 of it:

      x% - 100%
      2.56% - 67% (explain: 100-33 is value range 67%)

      x = 3.82%

      so he has to have this 4bet range.

      Is my calculations corect?

      Assumed he could 4bet like this:
      QQ+, AKs, A8s-A5s, AKo is 3.77%. But the question is - are unknowns 4bet bluffing without knowing my 3bet frequency? I myself usually do not 4bet bluff without seeing few 3bets before to make sure I have fold equity and I think average player is not 4beting without knowing any info.
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Your calculations seem weird to me.

      If villain folds, u win 36bb (25 from him, 11 from u)
      36% of the time u win with jj and win 200bb pot
      U invested 89 more (100-11)
      When called, u win 0.36(200)-89

      Let x be required fold equity to breakeven.
      36 x = (1-x) 17
      53 x = 17
      X= 17/53
    • SPeedFANat1c
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,074
      If villain folds, u win 36bb (25 from him, 11 from u)

      I was thinnking I need to add 3bb which he initially raises. Forgot that they are added already into those 25.