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[NL2-NL10] QJ in total OOP

    • yaxkukmian
      Joined: 24.12.2007 Posts: 2,020
      BU 43 hands 26/23/100 cbet/ 100 steal from bu
      BB 197 hands 23/18/ 67 folds to cbet/ 64 folds from BB

      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
      Hero ($13.55)
      BB ($9.65)
      UTG ($13.44)
      UTG+1 ($13.83)
      CO ($9.97)
      BTN ($13.44)

      Dealt to Hero J:club: Q:heart:

      fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to $0.35, Hero calls $0.30, BB calls $0.25

      FLOP ($1.05) 6:diamond: J:diamond: 8:heart:

      Hero bets $0.65, BB calls $0.65, BTN folds

      TURN ($2.35) 6:diamond: J:diamond: 8:heart: 5:spade:

      Hero bets $1.50, BB calls $1.50

      RIVER ($5.35) 6:diamond: J:diamond: 8:heart: 5:spade: 7:diamond:

      Hero checks, BB checks

      BB shows A:heart: J:heart:
      (Pre 74%, Flop 85.8%, Turn 93.2%)

      Hero shows J:club: Q:heart:
      (Pre 26%, Flop 14.2%, Turn 6.8%)

      BB wins $5

      Flop is super draw heavy and I go for bet to protect at least from GS or FD. T still doesn't change that much since he can have many worse hands...which probably fold and we're usually called by better. Is c T a possibility? Can we then c/c? That would be even uglier spot.

      R is just c/f? All hands got there.
  • 1 reply
    • BogdanPS
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi Yax,

      Preflop: I don't like our call here versus a 3.5x BTN steal with a regular in BB that can squeeze. You don't really talk about preflop, but why do we call? 100% steal means nothing over that sample. 43 hands means he saw 7 orbits and he most likely did not get a chance to steal in each of the 7.

      Postflop: So are we bet/folding or bet/calling or bet/shoving? Regs raise a lot of donks and we are OOP to two guys and building a pot with a somewhat weak hand. I rather check here and go from there. I think that the value we have in a donk is minimal.

      As played, unless we can think villain will fold Jx (which I doubt he will) it should be a ck/fold. Even turn is closer to a ck/fold but we have some thin value there still.