[NL2-NL10] Jj 030113

    • nipbourne
      nipbourne
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.07.2009 Posts: 3,597
      $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Holdem
      8 Players
      Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

      Stacks:
      UTG ($6.85) 69bb
      UTG+1 ($9.85) 99bb
      MP1 ($8.10) 81bb
      MP2 ($10.15) 102bb
      CO ($12.79) 128bb
      BTN ($10) 100bb
      SB ($4) 40bb
      Hero (BB) ($12.51) 125bb

      Pre-Flop: ($0.15, 8 players) Hero is BB J:heart: J:club:
      UTG raises to $0.25, 6 folds, Hero raises to $1, UTG calls $0.75

      Flop: 2:spade: Q:spade: 5:club: ($2.05, 2 players)
      Hero bets $1.19, UTG calls $1.19
      c/c?

      Turn: K:club: ($4.43, 2 players)
      Hero checks, UTG goes all-in $4.66, Hero folds
  • 3 replies
    • w34z3l
      w34z3l
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 03.08.2009 Posts: 13,318
      Hey nipbourne,

      I don't like preflop 3bet here vs UTG. He may not be folding much to 3bets but he's also just opening a pretty tight range UTG. JJ likely won't be a favourite vs the range that continues here. Flat preflop.

      I don't like flop cbet. There are many hands that beat you on this board and you are not folding any of them out. You are probably not getting called by worse either.

      Turn is pretty easy check/fold given villains pf range.
    • nipbourne
      nipbourne
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.07.2009 Posts: 3,597
      I don't like flop cbet. There are many hands that beat you on this board and you are not folding any of them out. You are probably not getting called by worse either.

      what's the range he call my 3bet with? can i c/c flop?
    • w34z3l
      w34z3l
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 03.08.2009 Posts: 13,318
      Originally posted by nipbourne
      what's the range he call my 3bet with? can i c/c flop?
      Given the stats we have:

      He opens with a 9% range then continues with 71% of this range. That's a total range of about 6.4%.

      Probably looks something like TT+, AJs+, KQs, AQo+, KQo. JJ has 49% equity vs this range and theoretically is too thin to 3bet for value.

      On 2sQs5c it has 35% equity vs this range, although villain does have around a 1% 4bet range which suggests he's 4betting AA/KK bumping your flop equity up to 41%.

      Theoretically you could check-call if you needed less than 41% equity depending on the odds you get, but this assumes villain is going to bet his entire range when checked to on flop (i.e including AKs,AKo,AJs,TT). If he only cbets his Qx type hands a check-call is not going to be profitable.