[NL2-NL10] NL10-AA 3b pot paired tt board

    • urmo1
      urmo1
      Black
      Joined: 02.03.2008 Posts: 718
      Hello
      MP2- stats 18/11/Fold to 3bet 39/ 4bet 4.6 (1range)
      Fold to cbet on 3b pot 46 /raise cbet 14/10/11
      Postflop - everything ok or overplayed?

      Turn
      He´s calling Qx/TT/maybe JJ but this is close/KsJs raising on flop i think


      Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 8 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      MP1: $10.37 (103.7 bb)
      MP2: $10 (100 bb)
      MP3: $10 (100 bb)
      CO: $9.35 (93.5 bb)
      BTN: $12.97 (129.7 bb)
      Hero (SB): $10.36 (103.6 bb)
      BB: $13.24 (132.4 bb)
      UTG+2: $10 (100 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is SB with A A
      2 folds, MP2 raises to $0.50, 2 folds, BTN calls $0.50, Hero raises to $2.20, BB folds, MP2 calls $1.70, BTN folds

      Flop: ($5) Q T Q (2 players)
      Hero bets $2.60, MP2 calls $2.60

      Turn: ($10.20) 5 (2 players)
      Hero bets $5.56 and is all-in, MP2 calls $5.20 and is all-in

      River: ($20.60) 3 (2 players, 2 are all-in)
  • 1 reply
    • w34z3l
      w34z3l
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 03.08.2009 Posts: 13,297
      Hey urmo1,

      Looking at the preflop stats, I don't think it's possible to value bet flop, crazy as it sounds.

      Villain is tight, 11% PFR. Let's say 9% PFR from MP2. He continues with ~60% of this range to a 3bet, and supposedly 4bets the top 1% of his range. (AA/KK)

      That leaves us with a range of something like TT+, AQs+, KQs, AQo+, KQo (ignoring your card removal in calculating percentages/ranges, the fact that you have AA just means he probably plays less often in this spot).

      You have 46% equity vs this range on the flop. + No guarantee a hand like JJ or AK is going to call, so you may have even less equity vs the range that calls.

      So the fact that villain is pretty tight, and the fact that the flop is terrible, means you don't have much of a choice but to check the hand down. You could check call if you felt villain would barrel his entire range. But if he only bets Qx/TT your only option is to check/fold.