[NL20-NL50] 3 99 nl25

    • ilidek
      ilidek
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.07.2010 Posts: 2,952
      Hero (BTN): $34.19 (136.8 bb)
      SB: $18.95 (75.8 bb)
      BB: $24.90 (99.6 bb)
      UTG: $25 (100 bb)
      MP: $19.38 (77.5 bb)
      CO: $20.30 (81.2 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BTN with 9:heart: 9:club:
      2 folds, CO calls $0.25, Hero raises to $1.25, 2 folds, CO calls $1

      Flop: ($2.85) 6:diamond: 8:club: 6:spade: (2 players)
      CO bets $0.25, Hero raises to $2, CO calls $1.75

      Turn: ($6.85) K:spade: (2 players)
      CO bets $0.50, Hero raises to $4.50, CO calls $4

      River: ($15.85) K:diamond: (2 players)
      CO bets $1, Hero calls $1

      What do you think about pushing this young gentlemen on the River? He's 54/15 75% WTS 14hands
  • 5 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Hi.

      I think its fine to push here for value against 8x and some ace highs. He sbould have those more often than 6x or KX in my opinion. And he seems to be a mega station.

      Thanks.
    • ilidek
      ilidek
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.07.2010 Posts: 2,952
      that's what I thought, he has J8o
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      It's going to be kind of thin, but I think he never folds 8X, not when the river card paired the Turn King. And I think vs his range we have some thin value, maybe we are ahead here 60% of the time vs his calling range.

      You can try plugging in some numbers about his river calling range on the river and see how you are faring with 99.
    • ilidek
      ilidek
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.07.2010 Posts: 2,952
      I don't understand the last part
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Use pokerstrategy equilab, put 99 as your hand, give your opponent a range of many 8X hands that you would expect in a VPIP 54 player 's range, add some 6X and KX.

      Calculate your equity on the River. If you have >50% equity vs his expected calling range on the River, then you have a value bet on the River. Try changing some of your assumptions and add/remove some 8X/6X/KX combos and see how your equity changes. If for example your equity is really high at 70%, then I think the shove is really clear cut. If you are only a 53% favourite vs the calling range, then this would be considered a thin value bet.