[NL2-NL10] nl10 SH KTs OOP

    • DrDunne
      Joined: 29.12.2010 Posts: 3,337
      Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      BTN: $10.70 (107 bb)
      Hero (SB): $14.97 (149.7 bb)
      BB: $4.99 (49.9 bb)
      UTG: $20.09 (200.9 bb)
      MP: $27.48 (274.8 bb)
      CO: $27.91 (279.1 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is SB with T K
      3 folds, BTN raises to $0.25, Hero calls $0.20, BB folds

      Flop: ($0.60) A 2 4 (2 players)
      Hero checks, BTN bets $0.40, Hero calls $0.40

      Turn: ($1.40) K (2 players)
      Hero checks, BTN bets $0.90, Hero calls $0.90

      River: ($3.20) 2 (2 players)
      Hero checks, BTN bets $2.30, Hero folds

      $3.20 pot ($0.14 rake)
      Final Board: A 2 4 K 2
      BTN mucked and won $3.06 ($1.51 net)
      Hero mucked T K and lost (-$1.55 net)

      villain is 23/23 over 102 hands, RFI BU = 62%, cbet flop 70% cbet turn 40%, Afq: 50%.

      preflop is the call okay or is it a bit too weak to flat with? villain folds 80% to 3bets... regarding flat calling i tend to use a range which looks something like this, depending on the villain:
      JJ-66, AQs-A9s, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, AQo-ATo, KJo+

      on the flop it's so dry he doesn't have to hit here.

      on the turn i hit some good SDV so i plan to call once more and check/fold to a 3rd barrel.

      river is such a brick and while it probably doesn't change his hand strength, i think that since he fires a 3rd barrel it means i'm beaten very often.

      is my overall plan okay here?
  • 2 replies
    • kymupa
      Joined: 22.10.2009 Posts: 22,364

      Interesting spot. KTs definitely stands good here against 60% range, but we have to know about BBs tendencies - if he likes to squeeze or call a lot, I don't really like calling here.

      I would prefer to check/call here on the flop with the backdoor FD, so without any backdoor equity and OOP I prefer folding the flop.

      I think the turn is rather a fold here. He doesn't cbet too much on the turn, and I don't expect him to bet worse hands for value here, so we are only bluffcatching in this spot.

      On the river folding is fine.

    • DrDunne
      Joined: 29.12.2010 Posts: 3,337
      hi kymupa

      on the flop we do have a BDSD tho so does that mean much at all?

      on the turn should we even be using turn cbet stats with only ~100 hands? i've spent most of my poker career ignoring postflop stats so i don't know too much about sample sizes for them, but i'd assume cbet turn is gunna be a sample of relatively few hands.