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[NL20-NL50] 25shz JJ SB

    • AtrociousNightmare
      Joined: 14.04.2010 Posts: 1,185
      Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      BTN: $24.41 (97.6 bb)
      Hero (SB): $25 (100 bb)
      BB: $41.38 (165.5 bb)
      UTG: $15.09 (60.4 bb)
      MP: $18.28 (73.1 bb)
      CO: $49.06 (196.2 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is SB with J J
      UTG folds, MP raises to $1, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.90, BB calls $0.75

      Flop: ($3) 3 8 8 (3 players)
      Hero checks, BB bets $2, MP calls $2, Hero calls $2

      Turn: ($9) 8 (3 players)
      Hero checks, BB checks, MP bets $3.75, Hero calls $3.75, BB folds

      River: ($16.50) 9 (2 players)
      Hero checks, MP bets $5, Hero calls $5

      $26.50 pot ($1.45 rake)
      Final Board: 3 8 8 8 9
      Hero mucked J J and lost (-$11.75 net)
      MP showed K K and won $25.05 ($13.30 net)

      BB: VPIP: 17, PFR: 11, 3B: 1, AF: 2.1, Hands: 573
      MP: VPIP: 30, PFR: 24, 3B: 6, AF: 0.7, Hands: 67

      Was a bit undecided whether to 3bet or not PF, but so far xe folded 2/3 3Bets and given lack of hands I just went for a call, after all xe's from MP and I'm on SB.

      Donk from BB (17% donk flop stat) on such a board tells me xe's on some average PP? Not too sure.
      After MP call I go along and see what happens.

      BB seems to give up, but MP shows xe wants some money.
      Given the possibility of TT-99 still, and given the small size, I call.

      At this point even 99 pwns me but this hand really feels like either a TT or QQ, and given the odds, I call.

      Bad idea vs such a very low AF? But I didn't have many hands.
  • 1 reply
    • EmanuelC16
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,909

      It's very thin since you beat only 77 and TT from his range that could play like this imo, but he can still have some 8x, JJ, QQ, KK and AA the way the action went. If we only do combo counting, his range is wide enough for us to call since we get 33% equity. If we have other assumptions we might decide to fold but only after 67 hands, his AF is not relevant enough for us to believe he will drastically deviate from the range that makes sense for just about everyone.