nl200 top winner

  • 26 replies
    • Ghostmaster
      Ghostmaster
      Global
      Joined: 24.05.2006 Posts: 39,937
      he is x/calling a LOT as PFA on turn, but then how can he tripbarell that much% on the river


      Cbet River ist a dependant stat - you could read it also as Cbet River after Cbetting Flop AND Turn.

      => so his high Cbet River % means that he Triple Barrels a lot if he barrels the turn


      I would like to tell you something regarding your first question, but imghack.us seems to have problems.
    • serverm07
      serverm07
      Basic
      Joined: 08.08.2012 Posts: 1,130
      This guy looks quite solid overall but I would say he is getting away with too many raises ip and x/r. Anyway the reason he is because too many players have a really poor cbetting game and have really no plan as to how to play vs raises.

      So for me vs this guy, I would start by looking over my cbetting game plan, am I cbetting too much in some spots, would want to tighten those up if they are out of line.

      Then after that, am I folding too much vs his raises? How much do I need to defend?
      lets say pot is 7bb, we cbet 4bb and he makes it 12bb, so now we figure out how much we need to defend, he is risking 12 to win 11 so 12/(12+11) his raises has to work 52% so that means not to get exploited we have to defend 48%. So then we would do our cbet %, let's say its 65x.48 so we have to defend 31.2% of hands that we cbet. So then from there we figure out a range to 3bet/get it in, 3bet bluff, and call if that makes sense, not going to get into ranges to do what with because that's going to get too complicated but you get the idea.
      Too often guys at 200nl, have a really terrible gameplan vs raises, they always reraise with the nuts and then just call down with every marginal hand and fold river and then they are surprised why someone keeps owning them.

      So then after that, we can maybe look into tightening our opening range a little bit unless huge whale in the blinds, or possibly leaving the table if this guy is hurting our winrate. But since we are all Ego warriors, I prefer to work out a game plan to play back vs this guy.
    • yegon
      yegon
      Silver
      Joined: 23.02.2012 Posts: 3,045
      His fold to cbet stats are ridic high, i would not tighten my cbetting range vs him even though he raises alot bcause he is just folding too much on flops in srp and 3b pots

      This suggests his flop raising range might be merged, i would check this in his hhs (what does he raise flops with) and if so i would look to polarize my cbetting range and also apply more pressure on turn and river if he just calls
    • mko101
      mko101
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.01.2009 Posts: 2,160
      Originally posted by yegon
      polarize my cbetting range and also apply more pressure on turn and river if he just calls
      And you have him crushed.

      Also definitely three bet more with hands that you can barrel with (e.g. A4s, J9s, 76s) but that are not dominated by his calling range (full of AQ/KQ/AJ).
    • serverm07
      serverm07
      Basic
      Joined: 08.08.2012 Posts: 1,130
      Originally posted by yegon
      His fold to cbet stats are ridic high, i would not tighten my cbetting range vs him even though he raises alot bcause he is just folding too much on flops in srp and 3b pots

      This suggests his flop raising range might be merged, i would check this in his hhs (what does he raise flops with) and if so i would look to polarize my cbetting range and also apply more pressure on turn and river if he just calls
      Hi,

      how exactly is 54% fold to cbet ridic high? He only has to defend 50% so it's a little bit higher than optimal.

      Also no it doesn't suggest that his flop range might be merged, It's more likely that he has a bluffing range for spots that he has thought about, overcards + bdfd, back door draws, some bottom pair turned into a bluff, etc.

      So yes I still stand behind my advice because this guy is playing back and seems like has a good plan for it.
      Although I think we can take a bit out of your post too, if we do some analysis and see that he always fast plays his monsters, then if the boards runs out in favour of our range then his bluff catching range will be quite weak and we should be aggressive. But it doesn't mean we should continue cbetting a lot and just triple barreling when we are not raised.

      I hope this helps, gl.
    • yegon
      yegon
      Silver
      Joined: 23.02.2012 Posts: 3,045
      A 50% defending range vs a cbet would be ok if our cbets would be pot sized. That is almost never the case so he should not fold much over 40% in srp and like 33-35% in 3b pots where the sizing is smaller. He seems to be highly exploitable by just cbetting i very rarely see fold numbers this high in regs.

      Now if his flop continuing range is so strong and he still folds a lot to turn and river brls this would suggest that he raises his value. Of course its just a guess and should be checked in hhs.
    • IronPumper
      IronPumper
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 03.01.2008 Posts: 14,843
      Originally posted by serverm07
      This guy looks quite solid overall but I would say he is getting away with too many raises ip and x/r. Anyway the reason he is because too many players have a really poor cbetting game and have really no plan as to how to play vs raises.

      So for me vs this guy, I would start by looking over my cbetting game plan, am I cbetting too much in some spots, would want to tighten those up if they are out of line.

      Then after that, am I folding too much vs his raises? How much do I need to defend?
      lets say pot is 7bb, we cbet 4bb and he makes it 12bb, so now we figure out how much we need to defend, he is risking 12 to win 11 so 12/(12+11) his raises has to work 52% so that means not to get exploited we have to defend 48%. So then we would do our cbet %, let's say its 65x.48 so we have to defend 31.2% of hands that we cbet. So then from there we figure out a range to 3bet/get it in, 3bet bluff, and call if that makes sense, not going to get into ranges to do what with because that's going to get too complicated but you get the idea.
      Too often guys at 200nl, have a really terrible gameplan vs raises, they always reraise with the nuts and then just call down with every marginal hand and fold river and then they are surprised why someone keeps owning them.

      So then after that, we can maybe look into tightening our opening range a little bit unless huge whale in the blinds, or possibly leaving the table if this guy is hurting our winrate. But since we are all Ego warriors, I prefer to work out a game plan to play back vs this guy.

      this is a solid way to look at it.
      Another imo solid countersrrategy vs his raising-gameplan is having in many spots a check-gameplan as the PFA - exspecially on boards which connect well with his coldcallrange.
      Hes pretty good and i guess you play him frequently, so you wanna be somewaht balanced.
      Hence in spots like mentioned you would checkback or check OOP (to C/F, C/C or C/R) then weak SD-value, mediumcore madehands, stronger valuehands, in some % your toprange, strong sraws, weak draws and air in a decent freq...

      and yeah,
      as serverm07 already pointed out:
      for the freq, you wanan cbet, take vs. a raise with a valuehand the action you would take with most of your continueing-range...


      edit:
      I relaize only now that his fold to cbet-stats are over all streets pretty high, exspecially OOP.
      So I would at least IP cbet still ots of air and vs. his C/Res you can give him often credit...
      cause when he folds OOP so much vs. turn/rivercbets, then there his weaker range has to be and hence his C/R-range is likely to be strong...
      You could jst go IP for an exploitve appraoch and look how it works:
      - cbetting IP still lots of air
      - checking back some weaker hands, like midpairs -> cbetting more polarized...
      - cbet weak draws and mostly also strong draws, though sometimes a checkback w a NutFDs on boards which are not good to cbet is pretty nice...
    • serverm07
      serverm07
      Basic
      Joined: 08.08.2012 Posts: 1,130
      Originally posted by IronPumper
      Originally posted by serverm07
      This guy looks quite solid overall but I would say he is getting away with too many raises ip and x/r. Anyway the reason he is because too many players have a really poor cbetting game and have really no plan as to how to play vs raises.

      So for me vs this guy, I would start by looking over my cbetting game plan, am I cbetting too much in some spots, would want to tighten those up if they are out of line.

      Then after that, am I folding too much vs his raises? How much do I need to defend?
      lets say pot is 7bb, we cbet 4bb and he makes it 12bb, so now we figure out how much we need to defend, he is risking 12 to win 11 so 12/(12+11) his raises has to work 52% so that means not to get exploited we have to defend 48%. So then we would do our cbet %, let's say its 65x.48 so we have to defend 31.2% of hands that we cbet. So then from there we figure out a range to 3bet/get it in, 3bet bluff, and call if that makes sense, not going to get into ranges to do what with because that's going to get too complicated but you get the idea.
      Too often guys at 200nl, have a really terrible gameplan vs raises, they always reraise with the nuts and then just call down with every marginal hand and fold river and then they are surprised why someone keeps owning them.

      So then after that, we can maybe look into tightening our opening range a little bit unless huge whale in the blinds, or possibly leaving the table if this guy is hurting our winrate. But since we are all Ego warriors, I prefer to work out a game plan to play back vs this guy.

      this is a solid way to look at it.
      Another imo solid countersrrategy vs his raising-gameplan is having in many spots a check-gameplan as the PFA - exspecially on boards which connect well with his coldcallrange.
      Hes pretty good and i guess you play him frequently, so you wanna be somewaht balanced.
      Hence in spots like mentioned you would checkback or check OOP (to C/F, C/C or C/R) then weak SD-value, mediumcore madehands, stronger valuehands, in some % your toprange, strong sraws, weak draws and air in a decent freq...

      and yeah,
      as serverm07 already pointed out:
      for the freq, you wanan cbet, take vs. a raise with a valuehand the action you would take with most of your continueing-range...


      edit:
      I relaize only now that his fold to cbet-stats are over all streets pretty high, exspecially OOP.
      So I would at least IP cbet still ots of air and vs. his C/Res you can give him often credit...
      cause when he folds OOP so much vs. turn/rivercbets, then there his weaker range has to be and hence his C/R-range is likely to be strong...
      You could jst go IP for an exploitve appraoch and look how it works:
      - cbetting IP still lots of air
      - checking back some weaker hands, like midpairs -> cbetting more polarized...
      - cbet weak draws and mostly also strong draws, though sometimes a checkback w a NutFDs on boards which are not good to cbet is pretty nice...
      Oh yea I forgot to mention that with my post I was mainly talking about cbetting oop to him. And wanted to say +1 to IronPumper's post about developing a plan to x/c x/r x/f on boards good for his range.

      Also yea you guys are right about his game to cbets oop. So once again +1 to IronPumper's advice to that.
    • serverm07
      serverm07
      Basic
      Joined: 08.08.2012 Posts: 1,130
      Btw this section is pretty awesome, definitely need to analyze the regs more that are giving me a hard time.
    • IronPumper
      IronPumper
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 03.01.2008 Posts: 14,843
      Originally posted by serverm07
      Btw this section is pretty awesome, definitely need to analyze the regs more that are giving me a hard time.

      yeah, it just sucks so much that the HM2-pop ups are for this sooo much worse than the hm1-pop up have been - still wanna enter this section soon and post some stats and info on some annoying reg I paly vs frequently cause as you said - section is imo rly great^^
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Originally posted by yegon
      His fold to cbet stats are ridic high,
      got to agree with yegon here, 54% is super high and is almost always the sign of a weak/tight player.

      Good players usually fold under 45%, probably around 40% since average bet size is 2/3 and that's the required amount of fold equity to breakeven on a bluff.
    • Lackoogcb
      Lackoogcb
      Black
      Joined: 16.04.2008 Posts: 1,648
      TY guys! You gave some really good tips!
    • serverm07
      serverm07
      Basic
      Joined: 08.08.2012 Posts: 1,130
      Originally posted by mbml
      Originally posted by yegon
      His fold to cbet stats are ridic high,
      got to agree with yegon here, 54% is super high and is almost always the sign of a weak/tight player.

      Good players usually fold under 45%, probably around 40% since average bet size is 2/3 and that's the required amount of fold equity to breakeven on a bluff.
      Just checked my fold to flop cbet and its at 40%. Does that mean I'm a :s_cool:
    • yegon
      yegon
      Silver
      Joined: 23.02.2012 Posts: 3,045
      Originally posted by serverm07
      Originally posted by mbml
      Originally posted by yegon
      His fold to cbet stats are ridic high,
      got to agree with yegon here, 54% is super high and is almost always the sign of a weak/tight player.

      Good players usually fold under 45%, probably around 40% since average bet size is 2/3 and that's the required amount of fold equity to breakeven on a bluff.
      Just checked my fold to flop cbet and its at 40%. Does that mean I'm a :s_cool:
      pretty much (if that pic is a shark) :)

      if I see a fold to cbet over 45% I have a really hard time comming up with a reason not to cbet all my air on the flop

      such a high fold number also indicates that we can widen our pf opening range because we want to get to more spots where we can profitably cbet

      this guys high flop raise is not enough to offset his leak of folding too much, even if we would cbet 100% and allways fold to his raise and allways lose if he calls we would still be making money, over 1BB per hand actually even OOP

      we could even try how low we can go with our flop sizing and totally mess him up imo :)

      if we add a randomizing element of not cbetting pure no equity air on really bad boards that his range hits we make our cbetting profitability even bigger and lessen the risk of him noticing

      I really don't see any reason to play timid vs him with our air, or to tighten up preflop

      what we could/should do is not cbetting marginal value hands, we can not get value (he folds too much) and we risk being raised
    • imfromsweden007
      imfromsweden007
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.10.2008 Posts: 726
      How many hands and what kind of winrate does this guy have?

      Guy seems on the loose side pre. Be careful with 3betting against him, he seems to call and 4bet a lot. I would rarely 3bet/fold vs this guy. 3bet with the intention of playing back, for example if your'e 120bb+ deep you can easily 5bet and get away with it since his range for getting it in will be very slim, whereas his 4bet% will probably stay the same. I would also 4bet him a lot of if he 3bets me, he seems out of line with his 3bets. He also calls a decent amount of 3bets, so he probably calls a lot of SCs, AJo, J8s etc, so I would barrel and generally be quite aggresive postflop.

      His calling game doesn't seem very developed though, he seems to 3bet a normal amount but still folds to 73% on his BB, which would indicate that he doesn't call as much as he should. So I would minraise most BTNs vs him.

      He seems to raise a lot of cbets postflop. This goes back to what I just talked about, doesn't seem like he has a very developed calling game, so when he sees a good spot to take the pot away he probably raises a lot instead of floating. So be careful when you see a spot where most people float and he raises, this is probably a good spot to punish him. His fold to cbet still seems on the high side, so this probably just goes back to the fact that he doesn't really like calling, so if he does call it's probably one of those hands you really have no other choice but to call with. He probably raises if it's ever a close decision.

      I guess those are the main things I spot when looking at his stats. Overall I would just pot a lot of pressure against this guy, it seems like he really wants to take down pots.

      ifs
    • Lackoogcb
      Lackoogcb
      Black
      Joined: 16.04.2008 Posts: 1,648
      I've got 25k hands(but I think my HM2 shows the last 20k) and his winrate is 3 BB/100 over 250k hands
    • serverm07
      serverm07
      Basic
      Joined: 08.08.2012 Posts: 1,130
      So basically what I gathered from this thread imo is:

      IP- we want to play aggro, I really like the advice of cbetting slightly smaller, I personally do it a lot in a lot of spots when I'm in ip vs fish and regs. We also want to develop some game plan vs his x/r.

      OOP- imo I'm not a fan of playing with fire oop and would personally rather tighten up and just have a super strong range vs him instead of trying to go crazy oop where we might make more mistakes.

      I do agree with everyone about IP though.
    • IronPumper
      IronPumper
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 03.01.2008 Posts: 14,843
      Originally posted by imfromsweden007


      His calling game doesn't seem very developed though, he seems to 3bet a normal amount but still folds to 73% on his BB, which would indicate that he doesn't call as much as he should. So I would minraise most BTNs vs him.

      True, but minraising 100% OTB vs. someone who folds 73% BBvsSteal is imo a little too much, when the SB is not a nit cause this value "73" is obv. the average value which also considers his behavious vs. >Minraosesand/or vs BTN-Nits...

      He seems to raise a lot of cbets postflop. This goes back to what I just talked about, doesn't seem like he has a very developed calling game, so when he sees a good spot to take the pot away he probably raises a lot instead of floating. So be careful when you see a spot where most people float and he raises, this is probably a good spot to punish him.

      You mean boards where it makes more sense in theory to float cause you would also play the largest parts of your valuerrange with a flopcall instead of a flopraise and hence most ppl have there more of a flopcall-gameplan - > Boards like High-low-low or something like KJ4r/s?
      How would you punish his flpraises on this boards?Rather per 3betting which might be in practice better, but would be in theory also suboptimal cause many valueheands you woul only B/C OTF? or would you start floatinghis raises, also OOP?


      His fold to cbet still seems on the high side, so this probably just goes back to the fact that he doesn't really like calling, so if he does call it's probably one of those hands you really have no other choice but to call with. He probably raises if it's ever a close decision.

      I guess those are the main things I spot when looking at his stats. Overall I would just pot a lot of pressure against this guy, it seems like he really wants to take down pots.

      ifs
    • imfromsweden007
      imfromsweden007
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.10.2008 Posts: 726
      It's probably true for most board textures, but maybe especially dry textures such as Q32 he seems to be raising a lot of hands where most people just float. I would sometimes fight back by 3betting flop, but usually I would just call and then decide turn, sometimes c/f, c/r some turns, alternatively call again and donk some rivers or whatnot. Reason is that it's hard for us to have that many legitimate hands that we really want to 3bet/get it in on the flop, so I think he will play quite well vs that. So I would mainly float but sometimes mix it up.
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