[NL2-NL10] co AA

    • Imimba1
      Imimba1
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.12.2011 Posts: 2,897
      Poker Stars $10.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      UTG: $7.63 - VPIP: 35, oRaise:33, 3B: 0, Hands: 17
      MP: $16.86 - VPIP: 29, PFR: 26, 3B: 14, AF: 3,3, Hands: 243
      Hero (CO): $22.92 - VPIP: 21, PFR: 17, 3B: 4, AF: 2,0, Hands: 121855
      BTN: $8.17 - VPIP: 25, PFR: 22, 3B: 15, AF: 3,0, Hands: 59
      SB: $4.75 - VPIP: 7, PFR: 7, 3B: 7, AF: 0,0, Hands: 42
      BB: $8.12 - VPIP: 18, PFR: 11, 3B: 4, AF: 0,9, Hands: 497

      Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is CO with A :diamond: A :club:
      UTG raises to $0.30, 1 fold, Hero raises to $1.05, 3 folds, UTG calls $0.75

      Flop: ($2.25) K :heart: 8 :diamond: J :club: (2 players)
      UTG checks, Hero bets $1.20, UTG calls $1.20 With these bet sizes, we are getting in OTR.

      Turn: ($4.65) Q :spade: (2 players)
      UTG checks, Hero ? This got really marginal IMO. Yeah I can bet for value, but ha can have many many better hands now.
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 50.59% 48.28% 2.31% AdAc
      MP3 49.41% 47.10% 2.31% JJ+, 88, A8s+, KJs+, K9s, QJs, JTs, T9s, 98s, AKo, AJo, KQo
  • 3 replies
    • cutegoldfish
      cutegoldfish
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.11.2009 Posts: 4,335
      His non-flush stack pre flop suggests to me he is a fish and likes to play a wide range of hands against 3bets and I would think his range is slightly wider than what you gave him, it could include TT JTo QJo Q9s etc.

      I think he would check raise us if he has 2p or better otherwise his majority of hands we best and can value bet against.

      If we had more stats we could look at his fold to turn and flop cb and check raise stat, the higher the check raise the more we are inclined to check back. The higher the bet vs missed cb he more we are inclined to check back and bluffcatch. The lower the fold to cb the more we should be betting against him for value.

      Cgf
    • Imimba1
      Imimba1
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.12.2011 Posts: 2,897
      If we are a coinflip vs him equity-wise, does it make sense to valuebet in theory (without further reads)
      ALL better hands are calling, but some worse fold, so we are losing money.
    • cutegoldfish
      cutegoldfish
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.11.2009 Posts: 4,335
      I think we are slightly ahead in equity. And it does make sense of he's calling alot of worse hands which is what I would expect some might fold.

      I think this is where we have to take a look at his tendencies, do we make more money by betting ourself or by checking back and allowing him to bet worse hands on the river? Or does he check raise alot taking away our equity while he actually has a draw?

      Without reads though I'm inclined to assume he's calling a range much wider than we think and to value bet thin against his draws and you are right that some might fold so ill bet something mid sized here on the turn like 2.50 and I think he would call almost all his draws. I don't expect him to check raise anything but the nuts.