[NL20-NL50] [NL50] QJs c/r

    • ains21
      ains21
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.06.2011 Posts: 303
      Hello.

      Villain is 20/17 reg (MP open 16%, 3.5k hands) who I have a little history with. He knows I c/r often my draws as well as monster value hands. I think before we had a similar hand where c/r on the flop and he calls, then folded to 2/3 on completed FD turn.

      C-bet: 62%
      Fold c-bet to check raise: ~44% (12)
      Fold to turn bet after calling flop raise: 52% (6)

      Party, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      UTG: $48.27 (96.5 bb)
      MP: $170.47 (340.9 bb)
      BB: $93.04 (186.1 bb)
      Hero (SB): $88.20 (176.4 bb)
      BTN: $53.77 (107.5 bb)
      CO: $59.30 (118.6 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is SB with J Q
      UTG folds, MP raises to $1.50, 2 folds, Hero calls $1.25, BB folds

      Flop: ($3.50) 4 T A (2 players)
      Hero checks, MP bets $2.49, Hero raises to $7.50, MP calls $5.01

      Turn: ($18.50) 8 (2 players)
      Hero bets $13.50, MP calls $13.50

      River: ($45.50) 4 (2 players)

      I think it's nice spot for c/r and plan to barrel any heart, J/Q/K (do you barrel others? Is this enough cards to make c/r-barrel profitable vs. this opponent?).

      Flop

      My estimate of his range after calling flop: KK-QQ,ATs+,KhQh,KhJh,QhJh,AJo+

      Reasoning: I think given my c/r is fairly high he will be 3-bet calling with all sets and Ahxh while bluff catching some other hands. I think maybe he also 3-bet calls KhJh/KhQh/QhJh

      Thing is he may think it more profitable to flat flop/jam blank turns with his sets, since I will barrel a lot of turn cards here. So maybe he has set combos here?

      Turn

      After he calls turn, I think: AQ+,ATs,KhQh,KhJh,QhJh

      But again, he may have those sets he was planning to jam on blanks that he now calls hoping to spike a pair on the river.

      River

      Board pairs and isn't great card for us I think. I'm not sure whether to bet here. We maybe make the following combos fold:

      AQ+ (28)
      ATs (4) [I don't think he opens ATo]

      And get called/shoved on by:

      KhQh (1)
      KhJh (1)
      QhJh (1)

      And if he slow plays:

      44 (3)
      TT (3)
      AA (3)

      -------------

      Do you think my estimates of his ranges are way out or OK? Do you bet large on the river here hoping to make AQ/AK/AT fold (since often he calls w Ah)? Personally, looking at it now, I think betting is clearly best option.

      Thanks!
  • 1 reply
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Hi.

      Flop: I think c/r especially with these stack sizes should be good. We have backdoor flush draw too which gives us many barrel opportunities

      Turn: I don't like your bet size at all. I don't see how you are ever nutted here. IF you had a flush you would probably pot here and try to play for stacks. Don't forget you are deep. Just pot and threaten his stack.

      River: Assuming he folds out many one pair hands on the turn already I am now giving up. I like firing river more if we had a single heart in our hand. It reduces the likelihood of villain having a flush himself. And he may be more inclined to call river if he has something like KhAx since he blocks flush combos from your range.

      Thanks.