[NL20-NL50] NL20 SH AT bet/f 2 pair on turn

    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,071
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.20(BB) Replayer
      Hero ($20)
      BB ($22.61)
      UTG ($24.93)
      UTG+1 ($16.38)
      CO ($17.24)
      BTN ($20.27)

      Dealt to Hero T:spade: A:diamond:

      fold, fold, CO calls $0.20, fold, Hero raises to $0.80, BB calls $0.60, CO calls $0.60

      FLOP ($2.40) T:diamond: 9:club: A:club:

      Hero bets $2, BB calls $2, CO calls $2

      TURN ($8.40) T:diamond: 9:club: A:club: J:spade:

      Hero bets $6.70, BB raises to $19.81 (AI), CO folds, Hero folds

      BB wins $20.71



      I don't believe he is bluffing me or having weaker 2 pair. Probably nothing to disscuess unless somebody does not agree with me.
  • 2 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Hi.

      Here are some estimates

      1) Optimistic
      Board: Ac9cTdJs
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 57.62% 54.28% 3.34% { JJ-99, ATs-A9s, J9s+, KdQd, KcQc, KcJc }
      MP3 42.38% 39.04% 3.34% { AdTs }

      2) Conservative
      Board: Ac9cTdJs
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 64.69% 60.31% 4.37% { JJ-99, ATs-A9s, JTs, KcQc }
      MP3 35.31% 30.94% 4.37% { AdTs }

      3) Super Conservative
      Board: Ac9cTdJs
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 88.38% 82.83% 5.56% { JJ-99, ATs, KcQc }
      MP3 11.62% 6.06% 5.56% { AdTs }


      Pot odds: 11.50/42.80 = 26.9%

      I think we have to call here with AJ and AT. We should discount some combos of AT/A9/TT/99 which would often raise the Flop and I think pot odds is just way too good for us to fold now when we bet so large on every street.

      Thanks.
    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,071
      I think only JcTc could call flop. Its 3way, my sizing is big, so he is never expecting a bluffs.

      So thats tough. I agree that sets or 2 pairs on flop - raise it. So we are left with KQ, and JcTc. KQ beats use and there is more combos of it.

      Also we cannot be sure if he has JTs in his preflop range