[NL2-NL10] NL5 SH, KQs, sticky spot IP

    • dienaszaglis
      dienaszaglis
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.06.2008 Posts: 999
      €0.02/€0.05 No Limit Holdem
      PokerStars
      4 Players
      Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

      Stacks:
      CO (€5) 100bb 27/15, 33@CO, CB: 100, AF: 0.8, 60h
      HERO (BTN) (€11.97) 239bb
      SB (€5.70) 114bb
      BB (€2.57) 51bb

      Pre-Flop: (€0.07, 4 players) HERO is BTN K:diamond: Q:diamond:
      CO raises to €0.15, HERO calls €0.15, SB calls €0.13, 1 fold

      Flop: 10:heart: 5:spade: K:heart: (€0.50, 3 players)
      SB checks, CO bets €0.35, HERO calls €0.35, SB folds

      Turn: 7:diamond: (€1.20, 2 players)
      CO bets €0.85, HERO?

      PRE
      CO is opening reasonable amount, so flatting IP seems fine.

      FLOP
      He`s probably not c-betting air 3-way. Plan is to call and re-evaluate further actions.

      TURN
      Sample size is rather small, but enough to determine, if he`s more passive. I don`t think he`s barreling FD`s. Also, can`t really see worse Kx. Maybe KJ. But, I think, it`s not enough to make a call here.
  • 3 replies
    • cutegoldfish
      cutegoldfish
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.11.2009 Posts: 4,335
      we dont have that much stats on him, he appears to have a low agg but i think this stat is not reliable and he could CB a gutshot like AJ or OESD like QJ sometimes better hands like AK KK AA and i think we do have the odds to call and see a river.

      if he bets for pot on the river (and we miss) ill probably throw the hand away but if he checks we can check back to see a showdown. on the river against a small bet i think we still can call perhaps worse hands like KT could play this way and sometimes missed draws.

      cgf
    • dienaszaglis
      dienaszaglis
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.06.2008 Posts: 999
      Ok, how big of a sample should we have, to fold the turn?
      Somehow, I doubt, that he 2-barrels with gutshot.

      So, folding the turn is a mistake?
    • cutegoldfish
      cutegoldfish
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.11.2009 Posts: 4,335
      To convince us to fold the turn I think we need something like 500 hands of a 10/10 opponent that only bets flop maybe 50% and turn less than 50‰ then I think I'm convinced he has only top pair top kicker and better and fold KQ.

      I don't think folding the turn is a big mistake though. Because we could be wrong as he could have better hands like AK KK AA and we still have to see the river and he could possibly fire again and we could have reverse implied if he already has a strong made hand like TT.

      Just that I don't think he has the nuts so often and also you are right he may not barrel his gutshot so I think it's marginal between calling and folding.

      Cgf