[NL20-NL50] [SH] NL30 KTo facing river x/r

    • Csubakoppanny
      Csubakoppanny
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.12.2010 Posts: 4,265
      $0.15/$0.30 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 4 Players

      Hero (BTN): $31.40 (104.7 bb)
      SB: $41.02 (136.7 bb)
      BB: $34.03 (113.4 bb)
      CO: $31.25 (104.2 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BTN with T K
      CO folds, Hero raises to $0.90, SB folds, BB calls $0.60

      Flop: ($1.95) J A Q (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $1.46, BB calls $1.46

      Turn: ($4.87) J (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $3.65, BB calls $3.65

      River: ($12.17) 2 (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $7.58, BB raises to $28.02 and is all-in, Hero calls $17.81 and is all-in

      Results:
      $62.95 pot ($3.14 rake)
      Final Board: J A Q J 2
      Hero showed T K and lost (-$31.40 net)
      BB showed J A and won $59.81 ($28.41 net)




      Hi!
      What do you think about this hand? Is it a snapcall on the river?
      I think his range on the river woul be this (according his loose passive blind defence):

      Asztal: J:spade: A:heart: Q:heart:
             Részesedés   Nyert  Osztozás
      MP2        72.72%  60.32%    12.40% { KcTd }
      MP3        27.28%  14.89%    12.40% { JJ, AQs-AJs, KJs-KTs, AQo-AJo, KJo-KTo }



      He's a really honest player and that's why I posted this hand here... do you think he would ever raise his two pairs/tripses there or there will be Fulls/pokers more ofen behind his raise?
  • 5 replies
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      Hey,

      I don't like calling check/shoves on rivers without knowing more about opponents. If your read is that he is honest I prefer a fold but bet bigger since his calling range is still quite wide. I think you can easily bet 8.5-9 and get called by the same as when you bet 7.50.
    • Csubakoppanny
      Csubakoppanny
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.12.2010 Posts: 4,265
      Thank you!:)
      Anyway, on our (Hungarian) forum a member noticed that I forgot to add QJ to the villains range (I totally thought that I did:D ) and assuming he won't ever bluff here his range can be that:

      Asztal: A:heart: Q:heart: J:spade:  J:club:  2:diamond:
             Részesedés   Nyert  Osztozás
      MP2        37.50%  21.43%    16.07% { KdTc }
      MP3        62.50%  46.43%    16.07% { JJ, AJs, KJs-KTs, QJs, AJo, KJo-KTo, QJo }


      According to this... we have an oddscall here, don't you think?:)
      The only question is that would he ever slowplay his trips/straight kind of hands till the river. ?(
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      Why do you put KT and especially KJ in his range? What would that hand expect to get called by when it raises? People don't raise for such thin value when you rep JT or better imo so then his range is more polarised but since people also don't bluff, it's highly weighted towards nut hands.
    • Csubakoppanny
      Csubakoppanny
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.12.2010 Posts: 4,265
      I only put him on this range because I think he's not that good player at all(jut guessing... EP and MP limps? Ok he's a LAG(gy) but does this style consist openlimping?) and so he may think he have a valueraise enough times with his slowplayed Jx hands.
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      How is he loose aggressive? He has big VPIP/PFR gap, he doesn't 3bet and he doesn't have a high AFq. He is definitely not aggressive. He is slightly loose but that's about it. This makes me want even more to take out KJ from his river raising range. You need him to c/r river which is unlikely but also to not c/r turn on a drawy board with his vulnerable trips (he does flat sometimes but not always imo). You basically need 2 events to happen and one of them is very unlikely and that's just to think of a BE call. In other words, best case scenario here you are about break even with calling. On average scenario you don't have a call.