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[NL20-NL50] [NL50] AQs vs. aggro villain

    • ains21
      Joined: 04.06.2011 Posts: 303

      Villain is aggressive 21/17/11.2% reg (1.4k hands).

      Fold to c-bet on flop: 39%
      Re-raise c-bet on flop: 26% (31)

      Fold to c-bet on turn: 22%
      Re-raise c-bet on turn: 33% (9)

      Party, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      BTN: $68.50 (137 bb)
      SB: $38.33 (76.7 bb)
      Hero (CO): $48 (96 bb)
      UTG: $50 (100 bb)
      MP: $314.59 (629.2 bb)
      BB: $85.81 (171.6 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is CO with A Q
      2 folds, Hero raises to $1.25, BTN calls $1.25, 2 folds

      Flop: ($3.25) A 4 K (2 players)
      Hero bets $2, BTN calls $2

      Turn: ($7.25) 8 (2 players)
      Hero bets $4.50, BTN raises to $14, [b]Hero ???[/B]

      On the turn what is our best course of action here when we get raised, knowing that he is fairly likely to turn any weakish made hand into a bluff on this turn?

      Bet/call and re-evaluate river?
      Bet/fold? (Seems to weak vs. such high % re-raise).
      Maybe we should check/call vs. such an opponent?


      (BTW we have only 98bb since forgot to click auto-rebuy and this is start of session).
  • 3 replies
    • EmanuelC16
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,909

      You cannot bet your hand expecting this guy to call much worse. He is a reg tha turns hands to weak to call into bluffs so you cannot play against him like you would against a station. This means betting the turn without a clear idea if calling is better is already bad and I suggest check/calling turn (you bet to fold that turn quite often anyway so you have fewer turn check/fodl hands) and then think deeper about bet/calling and posting the hand. This is general advice though since bet/calling might be higher EV but if you are not sure it is, you might spew in too light plus you risk way more.

      Regarding this specific hand, he raised 3 turns only.. that's not much. Basically most his aggression happens on the flop. Can you show his AFq for each street please? I believe that even against him this is a bet/fold as weak as it seems.

      I usually prefer check/calling even when I know opponents raise a bit wider than average because they need to raise REALLY wide for AQ to be a bet/call. Pay attention to any tendency to call down with the nuts because then his turn range becomes way weaker.
    • ains21
      Joined: 04.06.2011 Posts: 303
      Thank you for your response.

      His AFq is 5/3/3.

      I choose to bet this turn since I would also be betting JT/QT, sometimes PP that turned into bluffs, as well as my nutted hands of course. Since this is quite polarised I choose to include some hands for thinner value like AQs and expect him to bluff catch sometimes with worse hands. But as you say it is not good at all vs. this opponent since he turns a lot of his hands into bluffs on the turn rather than bluff catching.

      We also don't know how he reacts with bluffs on the river once he gets called on the turn because of the sample size, so check/calling or bet/folding does clearly seem best. Thanks again.
    • EmanuelC16
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,909
      Heh, that's his AF.. I meant AFq or AGG%. Anyway, that's decent indicator as well that he is not that crazy, he just doesn't fold as much but from there to say he raises very wide that you should not fold AQ it's a bit of a long shot imo.