[NL2-NL10] nl10 SH J9s BW

    • Beseventh
      Beseventh
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.01.2010 Posts: 2,482
      Poker Stars $10.00 No Limit Hold'em - 4 players - View hand 2137272
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      BTN: $11.07 - VPIP: 24, PFR: 19, 3B: 5, AF: 2,4, Hands: 28591
      SB: $12.30 - VPIP: 25, PFR: 21, 3B: 6, AF: 1,9, Hands: 20463
      Hero (BB): $11.31 - VPIP: 17, PFR: 13, 3B: 3, AF: 2,5, Hands: 40606
      CO: $12.88 - VPIP: 16, PFR: 11, 3B: 5, AF: 2,6, Hands: 77176

      Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BB with 9 :spade: J :spade:
      2 folds, SB raises to $0.20, Hero calls $0.10

      Flop: ($0.40) 7 :club: Q :club: Q :heart: (2 players)
      SB bets $0.30, Hero raises to $0.80, SB calls $0.50

      Turn: ($2.00) 4 :diamond: (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero ??



      1st thought was should I 3b here since he folding alot to 3bets vs BB but then I looked in my hand it looked not bad so I didn't want to change my hand into completely bluff.

      FLOP : This board is good for raise cb vs weak villain. Villain has smallish WTSD and 46% fold to cb raise. Now how we calculate if our raise is going to be profiable ?

      Is it : (bet / bet + pot) *100% = FE ?
      In this case : (0.8/ 0.8+0.7)*100% ~ 53% so if number of my FE is greater than his fold to cb raise is it EV+ ?

      Turn since he called I see in his range Qx type hands most the time only and sets for sure.
  • 3 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,696
      Hi,

      Raising the Flop here is purely an explotive play. If you think he just folds really often you can attack the PFR in this spot some % of the time.

      If you bother about being somewhat balanced though, I think we will often be 3betting AQ preflop, and we often call KQ/QJ/QT on the paired Flop. I think I prefer raising the Flop with backdoor draws, something like Jc9x or Jh9h, so that we can barrel more Turn cards.

      If we are raising any two cards here I think we may be raising too often here but in a vacuum I think it's reasonable.

      On the Turn I don't like barreling blanks. We should bet clubs to rep some flop flush draw semibluff raises but just give up on all other turn cards.

      Thanks.
    • Beseventh
      Beseventh
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.01.2010 Posts: 2,482
      Thanks ,

      Ok and what about FE how to implement math here ?
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,696
      We are risking 80cents more to win a pot of 1.50. Thus, our bluff needs to work 53% of the time.

      If we get folds >53% of the time (which I'm pretty confident you can achieve in a vacuum), then go ahead and do it.

      But good players will pick up on the fact that you are often bluff raising such paired flops and they will start to bet/call Flop with Ace high and play back at you by 3bet bluffing sometimes.

      Thanks.