# Valuebet

• Bronze
Joined: 26.12.2009
Hey guys!

DrD and I are discussing what a valuebet is. Around the internet you can read "Value When you bet for value you have more than 50% equity versus the range of hands you expect to get called by" I say this is balls and DrD says this is correct. Now someone has to be the fish

So here is what happened. I played a hand and the pot was \$6 and the villain has \$3 left. Now to make matters easy lets say that if we bet the villain is going to call 100% of his range.

nl10Sh AA on QQx

Because we say he calls 100% of the time we can also say he bets because thats going to have the same outcome and easier to count.

So the pot will be \$9 and I have to call \$3. So have to be good 1 in 4 times to be break-even because:

I win 1x\$9 = +\$9
I lose 3x\$3 = -\$9
Total = \$0

This means that in order to win in the long run I need to have 25% or more of equity vs his range.

This proves I don't need 50+% equity in order to make a valuebet. (in my head it is)

BUT DrD says that we need to be good 50% or more because we bet \$3 he calls \$3. If we win less then 50% then we are losing. This makes sense but he ignores the pot and I don't get why.

Sorry guys I hope this makes sense!

Regards

RasTweet
• 6 replies
• Bronze
Joined: 29.12.2010
so i'm a maths fish but the way i'm seeing this situation is:

the pot is \$6.70, we bet \$3.68, villain calls \$3.68
(\$14.06).

in this spot, against a range of: QQ-55,AQs,A5s,KQs,Q7s+,AQo,KQo,Q8o+
our AA has 42.5% equity.

EV = (0.425 * \$14.06) - (0.575 * \$14.06)
EV = (5.9755) - (8.0845)
EV = -\$2.109

i'm also saying in order for our value bet to be profitable, we need to have >50% equity vs villain's calling range..
• Bronze
Joined: 26.12.2009
I'm the fish

Ok so I get it now, but can't explain it right now.
• Bronze
Joined: 26.12.2009
If I have 25% of equity in a \$6 pot. If I check I'm going to win \$1,5

If I bet \$3 and lose 51% there it'll be a losing bet. So I'm losing there and win less then if I check.
• Bronze
Joined: 29.01.2010
DrD -

We can only call it a valuebet when ev betting > ev checking. ie we have >50%.

So in your 25% example in OP you were right, but because you win more by checking your valuetowning yourself so to speak.
• Bronze
Joined: 14.12.2010
Originally posted by DrDunne
so i'm a maths fish but the way i'm seeing this situation is:

the pot is \$6.70, we bet \$3.68, villain calls \$3.68
(\$14.06).

in this spot, against a range of: QQ-55,AQs,A5s,KQs,Q7s+,AQo,KQo,Q8o+
our AA has 42.5% equity.

EV = (0.425 * \$14.06) - (0.575 * \$14.06)
EV = (5.9755) - (8.0845)
EV = -\$2.109

i'm also saying in order for our value bet to be profitable, we need to have >50% equity vs villain's calling range..
I think we need to use our opponents actual range, which I don't think include so many strong hands like AQ, KQs, 99-QQ, since he limped. Which gives us even less equity and makes this a more clear check.

But I'm not a math wiz so I might be wrong, just the way I see it.
• Bronze
Joined: 29.12.2010
Originally posted by JCSeerup
I think we need to use our opponents actual range, which I don't think include so many strong hands like AQ, KQs, 99-QQ, since he limped. Which gives us even less equity and makes this a more clear check.

But I'm not a math wiz so I might be wrong, just the way I see it.
hmm the reason why i included AQ/KQ in his range is because he flatted from the blinds and it's difficult to say whether someone will 3bet these hands without actually seeing them do it. and QQ i agree definitely won't be in his range here because he didn't 3bet so our equity increases by 0.5% if we exclude QQ.

and yeah you're right. it gets interesting if we exclude even 66/77/88 because then our equity drops from 42.5% to 27.9%. i think it's reasonable to exclude these hands since they will be having a tough time calling on the river vs a 3rd barrel. he might stick around with 99/TT/JJ more often because we're assuming he's a bad player. and that makes the EV of a bet = -\$6.21 (if i did it right ). it might even be optimistic to include JJ/TT so if we remove these as well then we fail with 2% equity vs his range that continues so we pretty much rely on him hero calling with PPs.

hope i haven't messed it up.. the maths hurts my brain!!!