[NL2-NL10] nl10 SH TT river decision

    • DrDunne
      Joined: 29.12.2010 Posts: 3,337
      Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      MP: $14.38 (143.8 bb)
      CO: $2.91 (29.1 bb)
      BTN: $13.79 (137.9 bb)
      SB: $7.50 (75 bb)
      Hero (BB): $10 (100 bb)
      UTG: $18.12 (181.2 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BB with T T
      3 folds, BTN raises to $0.30, SB folds, Hero calls $0.20

      Flop: ($0.65) 4 J J (2 players)
      Hero checks, BTN bets $0.34, Hero calls $0.34

      Turn: ($1.33) 6 (2 players)
      Hero checks, BTN checks

      River: ($1.33) A (2 players)
      Hero checks, BTN bets $1.30, Hero folds

      $1.33 pot ($0.06 rake)
      Final Board: 4 J J 6 A
      BTN mucked and won $1.27 ($0.63 net)
      Hero mucked T T and lost (-$0.64 net)

      villain is pretty much unknown but 22/22 over 23 hands. this is such an amazing river to stab on from his POV.. should i bluffcatch expecting him to use the scarecard? or should i rather give up assuming that he would only bet, check, bet with a value hand?
  • 3 replies
    • zachrina
      Joined: 05.12.2012 Posts: 934

      I think his flop cbet is his standard cbet and his turn check is him giving up.
      A bet from you here will likely take it down but by checking turn you have put yourself in a difficult spot and should defo fold river here.

    • DrDunne
      Joined: 29.12.2010 Posts: 3,337
      i agree it looks like him giving up when he checks the turn and my general assumption is when they give up they won't change their mind later in the hand... unless they improve ofc.

      problem is i'm not exactly sure what i'm trying to accomplish if i bet this river. it's a prime scarecard so i expect a ton of FE when i do bet it and i would bet it if i had no SDV. if he ever calls the bet then he most likely will do it only with Ax.

      i half went for the plan of check calling in this spot but then i changed my mind half way through and confused myself. by check calling i give him the option of bluffing whereas by betting myself i only ever get called by better, and all else folds. at least by check calling i'll be good SOME of the time (if he even has bluffs) which means it will have a higher EV than betting myself as long as he has bluffs in his range - and his range is most likely wide enough for that. so... i'm assuming the EV of betting < EV of check/calling, but that doesnt necessarily mean that the EV of check/calling is positive anyway in which case folding is obviously the best choice.

      i changed my mind because he's relatively unknown and i don't know if i can count on someone to use the scarecard to bluff on.
    • BogdanPS
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi DrDunne,

      Preflop: looks fine

      Postflop: This is a tough spot for 10nl because people don't generally bluff that much on river scare cards, especially not pot from a regular looking player.

      So I would ck/fold.