[NL2-NL10] Qq 030813

    • nipbourne
      nipbourne
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.07.2009 Posts: 3,597
      $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Holdem
      9 Players
      Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

      Stacks:
      UTG ($7.95) 80bb
      UTG+1 ($21.98) 220bb
      MP1 ($9.80) 98bb
      MP2 ($14.83) 148bb
      MP3 ($11.71) 117bb
      CO ($4) 40bb
      Hero (BTN) ($10.87) 109bb
      SB ($10.05) 101bb
      BB ($10) 100bb

      Pre-Flop: ($0.15, 9 players) Hero is BTN Q:heart: Q:diamond:
      4 folds, MP3 raises to $0.40, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.40, 2 folds
      3bet?

      Flop: 5:diamond: 3:diamond: 6:diamond: ($0.95, 2 players)
      MP3 bets $0.68, Hero calls $0.68

      Turn: K:heart: ($2.31, 2 players)
      MP3 bets $1.30, Hero calls $1.30

      River: Q:spade: ($4.91, 2 players)
      MP3 bets $2.30, Hero goes all-in $8.49
  • 3 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Hi,

      Preflop: I think it's fine to flat here. I don't think he's opening particularly wide so without dynamic I don't think 3b/5b is going to be more profitable than flat calling and playing IP without the initiative.

      Flop/Turn: calling twice seems really standard

      River: Question here is whether we have value in shoving on the River

      -We have Qd: Reduces the likelihood of him having a flush
      -He opens from early position: fewer speculative suited hands in his range
      -High WTSD of 32%: Maybe he's kind of a calling station

      Taking everything into account, I still think that shoving here is probably way too optimistic.

      1) Range 1

      Board: 5d3d6dKhQs
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 55.00% 55.00% 0.00% { KK, 66-55, 33, AdKd, AdJd, KdJd, AdTd, KdTd, JdTd, Ad9d, Td9d }
      MP3 45.00% 45.00% 0.00% { QdQh }

      2) Range 2

      Board: 5d3d6dKhQs
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 45.83% 45.83% 0.00% { KK, 66-55, 33, AdAh, AdAs, AdAc, AdKd, AdJd, KdJd, AdTd, KdTd, JdTd, Ad9d, Td9d, KdQh, KdQs, KdQc }
      MP3 54.17% 54.17% 0.00% { QdQh }

      I think I may be being a little optimistic with these two ranges but that seems reasonable when villain seems to be kind of a station. Anyway I don't think there is that much value in a shove. The decision seems close.

      Vs a more solid guy who will tend to give credit for monsters here, I would just flat here, but vs this particular opponent it is probably a reasonable play.

      Thanks.
    • nipbourne
      nipbourne
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.07.2009 Posts: 3,597
      Preflop: I think it's fine to flat here. I don't think he's opening particularly wide so without dynamic I don't think 3b/5b is going to be more profitable than flat calling and playing IP without the initiative.

      can i 3b/f against his 4b range?
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Nope i dont like it. Its nt as though he is opening super wide and we know for sure he hardly ever 4bets worse.