[NL2-NL10] Terrible fold of 2 pairs?

    • Erevos
      Erevos
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.01.2011 Posts: 129
      BTN: $6.05 (121 bb)
      SB: $16.70 (334 bb)
      BB: $4.09 (81.8 bb)
      UTG+1: $9.44 (188.8 bb)
      UTG+2: $4.93 (98.6 bb)
      MP1: $13.98 (279.6 bb)
      MP2: $5.05 (101 bb)
      Hero (MP3): $4.98 (99.6 bb)
      CO: $9.72 (194.4 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is MP3 with T A
      4 folds, Hero raises to $0.15, 2 folds, SB calls $0.13, BB folds

      Flop: ($0.35) 9 A 6 (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $0.26, SB calls $0.26

      Turn: ($0.87) T (2 players)
      SB bets $0.55, Hero calls $0.55

      River: ($1.97) 2 (2 players)
      SB bets $1.10, Hero folds

      Results:
      $1.97 pot ($0.08 rake)
      Final Board: 9 A 6 T 2
      SB mucked and won $1.89 ($0.93 net)
      Hero mucked T A and lost (-$0.96 net)


      It is zoom and had only 19 hands of him. vpip 25/ pfr 13 / af 3 / wtsd 33

      About the preflop open, i think that at zoom is not a problem to try to steal more often if there are not aggressive 3bettors behind you.

      Could i raise on the turn for value? His donk bet surprised me.
      On the river, I don't know why i folded, maybe i was scared and not concetrated at that time.

      My equity against 2 pairs-sets-straights is 46%. I don't think he has a flush here. So it is a mandatory call , right?
  • 1 reply
    • Tomaloc
      Tomaloc
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.01.2011 Posts: 6,858
      hello!

      preflop open isn't super exciting but it's ok assuming that we'll get folds often from co & bu, or that they are weak and we can take the pot postflop easily enough with a cbet on most boards (should be fair assumptions for zoom5 unknowns)

      postflop is interesting. 25/13/19h isn't a good sample (still can be a reg or a fish, and considering he only actually participated in 5 hands, AF/wtsd are pretty much useless), but it should be safe to assume that he at least isn't completely clueless.
      so let's move on to the questions:

      Originally posted by Erevos
      Could i raise on the turn for value? His donk bet surprised me.
      what do you think he is donking with, and which of these hands will continue after a raise? why could he be donking the turn?
      imo a valueraise on the turn is pretty thin.

      Originally posted by Erevos
      My equity against 2 pairs-sets-straights is 46%. I don't think he has a flush here. So it is a mandatory call , right?
      given these assumptions, it is a call, since you have ~46% equity against ALL 2 pairs-sets-straight combos and you need to be ahead like 1/4 of the time on that call.

      however, i don't think these are fair assumptions at all, since we figured that he isn't completely clueless.
      whether to call or not is related to what do you think he could take this line with (call pre, c/c flop, donk turn donk river)

      so, he definitely won't have all the 2pair combos in his range. (he def won't have something like 92o, and he most likely wouldn't play twopair and stronger this way)
      he might have a few flushes, but i agree that he doesn't have them very often, and his sizing looks more like he's scared of the flush.

      everything said, call or not?
      i think it's pretty close, i would call myself but not be too happy about it. folding shouldn't be a huge mistake.