[NL20-NL50] NL50 SH - 99: 3bet vs MSS

    • Lunitis
      Joined: 22.02.2009 Posts: 20,136
      4.1 af
      31% OR CO
      67% fold vs 3bet (65% CO)
      8.3% 4bet range CO
      36% fold vs cbet flop
      32% bet turn vs missed cbet being oop
      50% wwsf
      18k hands

      Read: at SB vs BB b/c AT in Q32ss77 check down

      BB: agressive reg
      SB donkey 49/25

      Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      MP: $50 (100 bb)
      CO: $22.98 (46 bb)
      Hero (BTN): $58.76 (117.5 bb)
      SB: $41.67 (83.3 bb)
      BB: $82.61 (165.2 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BTN with 9 9
      MP folds, CO raises to $1.25, Hero raises to $3, 2 folds, CO calls $1.75

      Flop: ($6.75) 4 8 Q (2 players)
      CO checks, Hero checks

      Turn: ($6.75) 2 (2 players)
      CO bets $4.50, Hero folds ?

      I wanted to get the money in pre-flop, its kinda close maybe, but was the idea.
      Having the read should i fold? Sounds kinda weak that play..
  • 1 reply
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779

      I'm gonna assume the MSSer is a reg. We have a fish in the Sb which should make us more inclined to call here and let him come along. Then if the aggro reg squeezes we have the option of backraising. Bad thing about this is that we are slightly deep at 117.5bb so this makes backraising significantly worse.

      I think that CO is folding quite a bit to 3bets and he is opening very loosely at 31% from the CO too. Thus, we should be 3bet bluffing him a ton, and using 99+/AQ+ as our default 3bet value range.

      So I think your 3bet for value with 99 is fine here.

      Flop: When we check back the Flop, it should not be with the intention of folding the Turn. I don't mind just calling the Turn once and deciding on River. If he isn't that aggro, then we can fold river since 99 is closer to the bottom end of our Flop checking range. Maybe we can call some QX or JJ or TT even.