[NL2-NL10] nl10SH FF KQs shove river?

    • RasTweet
      Joined: 26.12.2009 Posts: 4,553
      Hey guys!

      vill: 23/19/2,9 after 483 hands
      Call CB IP: 100 (3)
      Call turnbet IP: 100 (2)

      I think I still have a valuebet ott vs worse Kx, Qx, x . Always bet/folding .

      Now on the river I think it gets interesting. He's probably folding Kx, x to a normal bet anyway. So I'm looking at only value that will call me. Since he's only ever calling w/ a valuehand I reckoned I could go for max value.

      Prima, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      BTN: $25.18 (251.8 bb)
      SB: $10 (100 bb)
      BB: $5.05 (50.5 bb)
      Hero (UTG): $10.66 (106.6 bb)
      MP: $43.42 (434.2 bb)
      CO: $13.07 (130.7 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q K
      Hero raises to $0.30, MP folds, CO calls $0.30, 2 folds, BB calls $0.20

      Flop: ($0.95) K 5 Q (3 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $0.75, CO calls $0.75, BB folds

      Turn: ($2.45) 3 (2 players)
      Hero bets $1.75, CO calls $1.75

      River: ($5.95) Q (2 players)
      Hero bets $7.86 and is all-in, CO calls $7.86

      $21.67 pot ($1.08 rake)
      Final Board: K 5 Q 3 Q
      Hero showed Q K and won $20.59 ($9.93 net)
      CO showed J 9 and lost (-$10.66 net)


  • 4 replies
    • Desultory
      Joined: 06.02.2013 Posts: 127
      Vs a decent thinking player, your line looks so strong that a decent player probably hero folds all top pairs. It always surprises me that you see 23/19 at $10nl. Whether he is capable of folding Top pair is the only decision in shipping river.

      He is likely to have AK here so can he fold AK? I would be surprised if he is. Therefore I think your line is good because of that.

      If he is calling with J9s, he is likely calling a lot of suited hands in position. Which now makes his range weighted towards suited hands, and therefore makes your river ship bad. Vs a tighter range, the river ship is fine as said above.
    • RasTweet
      Joined: 26.12.2009 Posts: 4,553
      Hey Desultory

      You say he has AK but I'm blocking AK and there is a K on the board so only 2 left. Plus what AK would play like this? Only the A:cK I think. With any other raise I think he'll protect his hand on the flop by raising.

      Also if his range are more suited hands why is my shove then bad? If he has a suited hand that calls twice it's very likely going to be a hand that flopped a flush. If he has a flush why is it bad to stick it in?

      Sorry if I'm a bit straightforward. I just find this hand interesting and want to discuss it.

      Thanks for the evaluation!

    • CPallo
      Joined: 12.04.2012 Posts: 4,343
      I would play the river same way. Guy might have been on a draw and he would give it up anyway on river. And then there could be slowplayed flushes and even 55 could be in his range. AK would most likely fold there on a half-pot bet, too and if you check he just checks behind.

      The way you played was, IMO, the best play to get max value from his overall range (Y)
    • Desultory
      Joined: 06.02.2013 Posts: 127
      Sorry for my confusion, sometimes I manage to glance over cards. You hit the full house on river. For some reason I didn't see that, I was assuming another blank card. So my earlier comments relate to a blank card. Its actually more interesting if you don't hit the full house, which I guess is why I assumed you didn't :)

      As you do hit the fullhouse, its an obvious bet, as he is often checking back AK that he may not be able to fold that hand. Given the J9s in his range he has more flush draws in his pre range that you beat now. Opposite of what I said earlier :) I think shipping is better than betting a normal size because I definitely don't think players can hero fold flush draws, and the wider his pre flop range, the more flush draws he has.

      In regards to other questions;
      Him raising the flop with AK vs your range is unprofitble and just bad imo. I know players 'blocker' raise a lot at lower levels but a call is always better. If he is rational, he will call flop with AK assuming he has it pre flop, which might not be the case. But given low 3bet % - more likely he has it.

      You say you are blocking AK, which is true, but there are still 8 combos (more combos than anything else in his range imo).