Truncall with my intentions +ev?

    • IronPumper
      IronPumper
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 03.01.2008 Posts: 14,838
      Hey^^

      I copy/paste a hand I have discussed today in skype (but I only poast obv. my opening-post) - hope that`s ok:

      [20:07:14] Chris: I post the hand below for you
      [20:07:25] Chris: its a 6max tbland I ve started the tbl with him
      [20:07:37] Chris: already started the previous days a ltitle bit tblsd with him
      [20:07:58] Chris: and he C/red me somewhat often, but his fold vs turncbet-stat wwas as well kinda low
      [20:08:31] Chris: and he has shown me some solid hands where he C/Called OTF, so I think he for sure has a pretty airheavy range with his C/Res vs me
      [20:08:42] Chris: so ifloat
      [20:09:07] Chris: I wonder if you think the turncall is +ev, with the intention to am vs. a riverbet or to improve?
      [20:10:01] Chris: once he checks OTR, I think i wanna bet even though I have ace-high cause I do not have many worse hands in my range so I think I can have this in my bettingrange
      [20:10:07] Chris: what size would you choose there?



      €2/€4 No Limit Holdem
      PokerStars
      2 Players
      Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

      Stacks:
      Hero (SB) (€488.95) 122bb
      BB (€400) 100bb

      Pre-Flop: (€6, 2 players) Hero is SB A:club: 7:diamond:
      Hero raises to €8, BB calls €4

      Flop: 9:spade: K:club: 5:club: (€16, 2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets €10.62, BB raises to €30, Hero calls €19.38

      Turn: 8:club: (€76, 2 players)
      BB bets €56, Hero calls €56

      River: 4:spade: (€188, 2 players)
      BB checks
  • 7 replies
    • thazar
      thazar
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.09.2009 Posts: 6,560
      I personally would make it really big, like a max value bet, 1.5-2x pot, Pleno style... or doesn' t that work at NL400? :f_cool:
    • IronPumper
      IronPumper
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 03.01.2008 Posts: 14,838
      Originally posted by thazar
      I personally would make it really big, like a max value bet, 1.5-2x pot, Pleno style... or doesn' t that work at NL400? :f_cool:
      if you wanna overbet, it would be a jam here.
      I just dunno if its best in theory cause I dunno if i have sooooo much air...
      And Im starting with this guys daily tbls+ hes good - so I don`t want to think only bout the vaccuum here, i guess....

      If he would be uknown reg, then a shove might be here best...
    • grrgrrbla
      grrgrrbla
      Bronze
      Joined: 31.05.2010 Posts: 421
      Flop:
      What about 3betting Flop? dont rly think you can call too many turns,rivers. I would only call Flop given he bets turns and gives up rivers or gives up on loads of turns.

      Turn:
      Given your reads i think its fine, esp. given you block both straights and flushes, can improve and can push over his riverbet.

      River:
      Whats your thinnest valuebettinghand on the river? 76? do you 3bet flop with 2pair+?

      you can have QJ,JT,T7,QT for Air-Hands, so your betting-range quickly becomes skewed to air-hands, but i like bluffing with blockers, so ac makes perfect sense.

      Only some gutters improve so you have decent showdownvalue: you beat QJ,JT,T7,QT. You loose vs 8x and 4cx ... he sometimes check/calls Kx... I would guess betting is +EV in a vacuum.

      Sizing-wise overbetting makes little sense to me. If you wanna go thinner than straight+ and vbet some 2pairs or sets you would never overbet. 125 seems fine.
      You could ofc split your range in a vbetting thinner-range which includes 2pair, some flushes and qj,qt,t7 without blockers and a shoving-range which includes flushes and flush-blocker-bluffs. Acx would fit perfectly in the latter. But i dont know if i would shove a flush here, his range looks super-capped and i expect folds rly often vs a ship.
    • IronPumper
      IronPumper
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 03.01.2008 Posts: 14,838
      Originally posted by grrgrrbla
      Flop:
      What about 3betting Flop? dont rly think you can call too many turns,rivers. I would only call Flop given he bets turns and gives up rivers or gives up on loads of turns.

      Turn:
      Given your reads i think its fine, esp. given you block both straights and flushes, can improve and can push over his riverbet.

      River:
      Whats your thinnest valuebettinghand on the river? 76? do you 3bet flop with 2pair+?

      you can have QJ,JT,T7,QT for Air-Hands, so your betting-range quickly becomes skewed to air-hands, but i like bluffing with blockers, so ac makes perfect sense.

      Only some gutters improve so you have decent showdownvalue: you beat QJ,JT,T7,QT. You loose vs 8x and 4cx ... he sometimes check/calls Kx... I would guess betting is +EV in a vacuum.

      Sizing-wise overbetting makes little sense to me. If you wanna go thinner than straight+ and vbet some 2pairs or sets you would never overbet. 125 seems fine.
      You could ofc split your range in a vbetting thinner-range which includes 2pair, some flushes and qj,qt,t7 without blockers and a shoving-range which includes flushes and flush-blocker-bluffs. Acx would fit perfectly in the latter. But i dont know if i would shove a flush here, his range looks super-capped and i expect folds rly often vs a ship.

      @3betting flop:
      I find it pretty bad vs. any competent palyer you know you have to paly a lot.
      Just too many hands i would only B/Call on this flop...


      @river:
      vs him (he is competent and I play him daily), i do not 3bet usually 2pair+ OTF.
      But I also think that 2pairs are no valuebet OTR cause I have notsooooo much air (I think) compared to all my flushes...
      Im not 100% sure bout my valuerange OTR cause its hu and Im not as great as Hu, yet...
      btw. I think I would not peel the turn with stuff like QJ w/o a club...
    • grrgrrbla
      grrgrrbla
      Bronze
      Joined: 31.05.2010 Posts: 421
      Than your bluffingrange is something like: Ac7x, QcJx, QxJc, JcTx, JxTc, QcTx, QxTc, Ac6x which are #4 each so #32 Bluff-Kombos,

      your value-range without 2pair would be sets+ so KK,99,55, 76, maybe 88? so together thats #28
      if you openraise any2 suited on the BU and bet/call any fdraw on the flop and always just call turn witha flush you have #45 of flushes on the river

      Valuerange = #73
      Bluffrange= #32
      Bluff% = 30,4%

      needed Equity for your opponent to call = betsize / (potsize + betsize + betsize)
      0,304 = x / (188+ x + x)

      57 + 0,608x = x
      0,392x = 57
      x = 145

      -> if you bet more than 145 your opponent makes a mistake potoddswise given the above parameters.
    • IronPumper
      IronPumper
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 03.01.2008 Posts: 14,838
      Originally posted by grrgrrbla
      Than your bluffingrange is something like: Ac7x, QcJx, QxJc, JcTx, JxTc, QcTx, QxTc, Ac6x which are #4 each so #32 Bluff-Kombos,

      your value-range without 2pair would be sets+ so KK,99,55, 76, maybe 88? so together thats #28
      if you openraise any2 suited on the BU and bet/call any fdraw on the flop and always just call turn witha flush you have #45 of flushes on the river

      Valuerange = #73
      Bluffrange= #32
      Bluff% = 30,4%

      needed Equity for your opponent to call = betsize / (potsize + betsize + betsize)
      0,304 = x / (188+ x + x)

      57 + 0,608x = x
      0,392x = 57
      x = 145

      -> if you bet more than 145 your opponent makes a mistake potoddswise given the above parameters.

      thx for effort - btw. woul have also joined the thread with sume ranges and numbers but my fucking equilab is sincwe today no mroe working and no one of the officials is capable to solve so far the problem - rly pised b/c of this cause I need this fuckingg tool permanently - like now I had just right now an interesting and tough hand and cannot analyse it.
      Could use crev , but this does cost me way more time - rly tilting.

      Your math looks good - I just dunno if we wanna valuebet 2pair OTR or if not...
    • serverm07
      serverm07
      Basic
      Joined: 08.08.2012 Posts: 1,130
      I think something like 3/4-pot is going to be good in terms of sizing. I prob just bet 3/4 and think he makes more mistakes vs that.

      As far as flop play, I think you will have plenty of hands that you can b/float vs his raise with that have much better equity than a7 but this would go into my 3bet range imo. And you can kind of set how he will react to 3bets.