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[NL20-NL50] QQ weird spot

    • zumpar
      zumpar
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.02.2012 Posts: 1,185
      just seems so unlikey for him to jam worse than AK/QQ, maybe he even folds AK here, idk

      3b:11, ft4b:3/8, 4b+ratio:4.3
      100bb deep id stack this off any time given positions and PF aggro stats, but what now?

      seeems like if i want to 4b/f then id be better off just flatting pre, but if i flat, UTG is very likely to jam and if SB jams after that as well, ill have the same tough spot, so....


      iPoker - $0.50 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      Hero (BB): $109.11
      UTG: $22.85 (VPIP: 38.10, PFR: 9.52, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 21)
      MP: $58.66 (VPIP: 19.35, PFR: 16.13, 3Bet Preflop: 8.00, Hands: 65)
      CO: $50.00 (VPIP: 27.34, PFR: 24.46, 3Bet Preflop: 8.20, Hands: 140)
      BTN: $59.20 (VPIP: 13.33, PFR: 6.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 30)
      SB: $66.85 (VPIP: 23.69, PFR: 20.31, 3Bet Preflop: 10.85, Hands: 330)

      SB posts SB $0.25, Hero posts BB $0.50

      Pre Flop: (pot: $0.75) Hero has Q:spade: Q:heart:

      UTG raises to $2.00, fold, fold, fold, SB raises to $6.50, Hero raises to $15.00, UTG raises to $22.85, SB raises to $66.85 and is all-in, Hero????


      fold

      Flop: ($60.70, 2 players) T:diamond: 4:spade: J:heart:

      Turn: ($60.70, 2 players) 6:club:

      River: ($60.70, 2 players) 7:club:

      UTG shows 8:club: 8:heart: (One Pair, Eights) (Pre 56%, Flop 60%, Turn 77%)
      SB shows A:diamond: K:heart: (High Card, Ace) (Pre 44%, Flop 40%, Turn 23%)
      UTG wins $57.70

      SB wins $0.00
  • 1 reply
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi Zumpar,

      Preflop: Weird spot indeed.

      If we were 100 BB deep this would be an easy call imo. Like this we still have 100 BB behind and I doubt SB's 3-bet vs UTG midstack and then shove over cold 4-bet and shove is a weak range. At best we are hoping for AK so his range to me looks AK/QQ+.

      I think JJ or AQ will have a hard time stacking off so your fold is on the tighter side but I think it's the correct play.
      After some simple calculation we see that we need 34%+ equity (+ because of rake).

      And we have this much versus a sample range:

      BB 32.57% 31.08% 1.49% QQ
      SB 43.42% 40.00% 3.42% QQ+, AKs, AKo
      UTG 24.01% 21.32% 2.69% 88+, AQs+, AKo

      If we add JJ/AQs in SBs range we barely go up to 36%