[NL2-NL10] AKo 031313

    • nipbourne
      nipbourne
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.07.2009 Posts: 3,597
      $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Holdem
      7 Players
      Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

      Stacks:
      UTG ($14.62) 146bb
      Hero (UTG+1) ($10) 100bb
      MP ($10.35) 104bb
      CO ($43.03) 430bb
      BTN ($15.69) 157bb
      SB ($10.13) 101bb
      BB ($11.35) 114bb

      Pre-Flop: ($0.15, 7 players) Hero is UTG+1 K:spade: A:heart:
      1 fold, Hero raises to $0.35, 4 folds, BB calls $0.25

      Flop: 3:spade: 10:club: J:diamond: ($0.75, 2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $0.50, BB calls $0.50

      Turn: K:heart: ($1.75, 2 players)
      BB bets $0.80, Hero calls $0.80

      River: 6:diamond: ($3.35, 2 players)
      BB bets $2.30, Hero folds
  • 1 reply
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Hi.

      I would just call down, we just need to win about 30% of the time here. I am not that thrilled when he takes this line but occasionally we'll see KQ which we beat, or maybe we'll chop with AK.

      1) I'm being optimistic with the inclusion of 98s

      Board: Tc3sJdKh6d
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 53.13% 43.75% 9.38% { AQs+, KTs+, 98s, AQo+, KQo }
      MP3 46.88% 37.50% 9.38% { AhKs }

      2) Without 98s - We still have almost 40% here, which is way more than the pot odds being offered to us. Basically we cannot fold a hand as strong as AK here.

      Board: Tc3sJdKh6d
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 60.71% 50.00% 10.71% { AQs+, KTs+, AQo+, KQo }
      MP3 39.29% 28.57% 10.71% { AhKs }

      3) All combos of KJo/KTo - This would be a close fold, we almost have 30%.

      Board: Tc3sJdKh6d
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 71.05% 63.16% 7.89% { AQs+, KTs+, AQo+, KTo+ }
      MP3 28.95% 21.05% 7.89% { AhKs }

      I think it should now be clear that we cannot fold AK.

      Thanks.