Sample size for 6 max hypers

  • 2 replies
    • pzhon
      pzhon
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 1,151
      You never know your true ROI, and there is no sharp cut-off. Your results gradually become a more and more accurate estimate of your advantage. The standard deviation of your estimate after n tournaments is about 150/sqt(n), and there is a roughly 95% chance that your results will be within 2 standard deviations of your true advantage. After 1k tournaments, you can estimate your advantage within about 10% ROI, after 4k tournaments, 5%, after 25k tournaments, 2%, 100k tournaments, 1%.

      The all-in adjustment helps a lot for hypers. It might mean you only have to play about 30% as many tournaments to get the same level of accuracy. That might mean you only need about 7.5k tournaments to be confident that you know your ROI within 2%.

      The bankroll you need depends on your win rates at the two levels. If you win more money per tournament at the lower level, no bankroll would tell you to move up. If you are worried about whether you win more money at the higher level than the lower level, you should probably take shots to collect information rather than determine a fixed schedule for moving up and down. However, if you have played a lot at the higher level, and moved down due to a downswing or withdrawing from your bankroll, then the formula in my book with Collin, "The Math of Hold'em" applies: threshold for moving up = 1/2 comfort * marginal variance / marginal win rate. A comfort level of 2 is aggressive, and 4 is usually considered conservative. Marginal variance is the difference between the variance (square of standard deviation) at the higher level and at the lower level. Marginal win rate is the extra amount you win at the higher level. For example, if your ROI is 2% in $100 hypers and 3% in $50 hypers, with a standard deviation of 1.5 buy-ins for each, and a comfort level of 3, then this formula suggests that you move up when your bankroll is 1/2 * 3 * (150^2 - 75^2)/(2-1.50) = $50,625.
    • vuciitis
      vuciitis
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.02.2011 Posts: 1,314
      hard to reply after sucha guy like pzhon :D

      from experience i have and what i have seen on the internet and from talking with people who plays same format as me - hypers in this case, i would say u need at least 300BI for stake you feel comfortable. and safe way to make shots is to do it only when you are above these 300BI for your usual stake, then make a session for higher stake, if u loose, u grind it back while u have more than 300BIs again... and 300BI is not much to be honest, i know players who have lost more in less variance heavy formats.