[NL20-NL50] NL50 6max, BU defend A3s

    • Anger86
      Anger86
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.08.2008 Posts: 511
      $50.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players

      SB: $50.00 - VPIP: 20, PFR: 15, 3B: 20, AF: 0.5, Hands: 54
      BB: $56.78 - VPIP: 20, PFR: 17, 3B: 6, AF: 2.3, Hands: 641
      UTG: $204.90 - VPIP: 31, PFR: 21, 3B: 7, AF: 5.7, Hands: 99
      MP: $50.00 - VPIP: 19, PFR: 19, 3B: 5, AF: Infinity, Hands: 58
      CO: $55.21 - VPIP: 26, PFR: 14, 3B: 4, AF: 0.8, Hands: 58
      Hero (BTN): $56.00 - VPIP: 23, PFR: 20, 3B: 8, AF: 4.6, Hands: 167476

      Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BTN with 3 :club: A :club:
      3 folds, Hero raises to $1.25, SB raises to $4.25, 1 fold, Hero calls $3

      Flop: ($9.00) 6 :heart: 5 :diamond: 2 :spade: (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero checks

      Turn: ($9.00) 3 :diamond: (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $4.50, SB calls $4.50

      River: ($18.00) J :spade: (2 players)
      SB bets $10.50, Hero calls $10.50

      Metagame: (About 3-4 orbits)
      1. Villain 3bets me BU vs CO. I fold.
      2. Villain 3bets me BU vs CO. I 4bet bluff, he folds.
      3. This hand.

      Preflop: Usually against +/- aggro players I don't even need to be defending much, because my BU stealing strategy
      alone is enough to profit. Now this hand is in my defending range.

      Flop: After Villain checks, I don't see him having JJ+ almost ever unless he expects me to be spazzy, which sometimes might be the case. So, I don't mind checking back. Possibly go to a cheap showdown. I expect Villain wanting to check down w/ almost any Ax hands or even bluff catch with those. So, to exploit I'd barrel 77-JJ here all day.

      Turn: Once he checks again, I feel pretty comfortable with my hand and decide to bet for value vs AK-AJ.

      I use 1/2 bet, expecting a 1/3 bet induce some bluffs. On the other hand maybe I even should bet 1/4-1/3 to induce and call down.

      River: OK, it's never 77-JJ. It's like AJ exactly or airball. Also AJ has 9 combos only. Some of those will x/c R, but I like if it's leading River to get value from 6x, 77-99 smthg.

      How my hands looks to OP?
      I check back flop so I don't have 77-JJ.
      He checks Turn and I bet - could be float w/ airball.
      Pretty wide range of air since I'd check down Ah.
      So, he can bet River to take down the pot.
      He has to win it ~40% of time, which looks fine mathematically.
      I think, this play of my OP can't really be +EV, since it is not telling a perfect story. This could be OK, if he had like 88, but I can't really see him having that after 3betting.

      I called to get a read on my OP with a good chance to win the pot. I have to be good 27% .
  • 3 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,697
      Hi.

      Preflop: im not sure if his range here is wide enough to call here profitably but if u have a postflop edge its fine.

      Flop: just bet here immediately. I expect him to checlfold mostly.

      Turn: what worse hands do u expect him to call with, with that halfpot bet size? I prefer betting even smaller and not folding to a raise.

      River: i dont know what he is repping really. On one hand he "never ever" bluffs like that. On the other hand why would he play any value hand like that?

      My guess is that it was an overpair which whiffed a checkraise on the flop. He thought he couldnt valuebet turn so he decided to cc turn donk river as a potcontrol line to lose less money and gwt lighter calls from you. I probably prefer folding here - i think point one outweighs point 2.

      Thanks.
    • Anger86
      Anger86
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.08.2008 Posts: 511
      Originally posted by mbml
      Hi.

      Flop: just bet here immediately. I expect him to checlfold mostly.

      Turn: what worse hands do u expect him to call with, with that halfpot bet size? I prefer betting even smaller and not folding to a raise.

      I expect him to call with AK-AJ which want to bluffcatch. But I agree with betting smaller to induce.

      River: i dont know what he is repping really. On one hand he "never ever" bluffs like that. On the other hand why would he play any value hand like that?

      My guess is that it was an overpair which whiffed a checkraise on the flop. He thought he couldnt valuebet turn so he decided to cc turn donk river as a potcontrol line to lose less money and gwt lighter calls from you. I probably prefer folding here - i think point one outweighs point 2.

      It was total air. Th8h. :D But he would bet JJ+ IMO. And I don't see him having TT or lesser over pairs here. Also on the turn is a FD.
      If he was a bigger fish player then I'g agree, but I think that with solid overpairs he'd almost never check twice w/ FD out there.


      Thanks.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,697
      Expecting him to call AJ AQ AK always vs a halfppt bet is way too optimistic especially on a 4straigt board.


      As for his river line thats pretty unexpected from a reg.