How long can a downswing last?

  • 28 replies
    • Swish29
      Swish29
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.04.2009 Posts: 263
      Your whole life in theory, and even more of course.
    • Mat55
      Mat55
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.02.2013 Posts: 92
      It can last for a while, my only advice to you is stick to what you're playing and do not go degen-mode (aka move up limits to get your $$ back). The only way out of the downswing in my fishy opinion is volume or study and keep playing.
    • UPAY4DINNER
      UPAY4DINNER
      Silver
      Joined: 27.09.2009 Posts: 21,979
      Originally posted by Mat55
      It can last for a while, my only advice to you is stick to what you're playing and do not go degen-mode (aka move up limits to get your $$ back). The only way out of the downswing in my fishy opinion is volume or study and keep playing.
      +1, thank you :)
    • Justin37
      Justin37
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.07.2009 Posts: 445
      Well, it maybe 1-3 hours, OR 1-3 days or weeks or months...

      I've been in downward trend since last week, but my losses is manageable.
      Playing lower limit to get back my Losses.

      Today losing QUAD twice in 2 tables, while having the nuts on FLOP lol.

      As above poster said, dont move up Upper Limit. My advise is, play your best limit... (limit where you can play without having to worry if u are losing)
    • legand73
      legand73
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.06.2010 Posts: 4,136
      Hey prime

      I think it all depends on the nature of the downswing. If you are playing below EV the 'downswing' is going to last a lot longer in general than if you are playing above EV.

      Plus another factor to consider is the amount of volume you put in. A downswing could last forever if you are hardly putting any hours in (it would at least feel like it lasted for a long time anyway).

      Hope I helped

      Regards,
      Luke
    • gadget51
      gadget51
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.06.2008 Posts: 5,622
      Hi prime333

      In my opinion a downswing lasts for one hand and then it's a new hand, so I suppose a downswing as such is a retrospective a term, making said downswing last as long as it has lasted so far and no more.
      Not even sure if I made sense there, just my thought on it and in no way expertly formulated. :)
      I would be interested in any disagreement.

      Mal.
    • ExternalUseOnly
      ExternalUseOnly
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.01.2010 Posts: 3,373
      Originally posted by Swish29
      Your whole life in theory, and even more of course.
      This if you are really unlucky, or maybe you are not unlucky and don't study then you will get the same effect. I'm not saying you don't study by the way, i have no idea how you go about your game but there is a famous quote that im probably going to destroy now :D goes something a little like "The funny thing about luck is, the harder you work, the more of it you seem to get" So get your head down keep playing keep studying and posting hands, read some articles and watch some videos about variance until you understand what it is and how it works then read some more articles and watch some vids on the game type you play and before you know it you will start turning things around (hopefully)
    • ihufa
      ihufa
      Gold
      Joined: 18.03.2008 Posts: 3,323
      12 days
    • MisterHomes
      MisterHomes
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.09.2008 Posts: 128
      If you're having a downswing, it may be best to take some time to analyze your play to make sure you're still making the right decisions. If you are tilting, or find that you are making really bad plays, it may be best to take a break to take care of your mind and body. I wouldn't keep playing after a big downswing unless I was confident I was still making the right plays. Ignoring this can make your downswings last longer (because now you aren't playing well and are losing more money!)
    • RasTweet
      RasTweet
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.12.2009 Posts: 4,553
      Hey prime

      I think most is said but if you are having a downswing I suggest you take a look at this video. I think you might find it rather interesting.

      Regards

      RasTweet
    • UPAY4DINNER
      UPAY4DINNER
      Silver
      Joined: 27.09.2009 Posts: 21,979
      Originally posted by ihufa
      12 days
      + how many hours or is this exact?

      :coolface:
    • onerking
      onerking
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.06.2011 Posts: 191
      I've just been running for 70k+ hands in the mouth of maddness in the theet of solid edge over my limit, nothing to worry about :)
    • prime333
      prime333
      Basic
      Joined: 14.05.2012 Posts: 400
      :rage: :rage: :rage: :rage: :rage: :rage: :rage: :rage:

      Been running so bad like villain keeps hitting runner, runner like this.

      PokerStars - $0.02 NL - Holdem - 8 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      UTG+1: 101 BB
      MP: 43 BB
      MP+1: 49.5 BB
      CO: 183 BB
      BTN: 125 BB
      SB: 84.5 BB
      BB: 100 BB
      Hero (UTG): 133 BB

      SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

      Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A:spade: K:heart:

      Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, BTN calls 3 BB, fold, fold

      Flop: (7.5 BB, 2 players) 3:club: A:heart: T:heart:
      Hero bets 5 BB, BTN calls 5 BB

      Turn: (17.5 BB, 2 players) 2:club:
      Hero bets 10 BB, BTN calls 10 BB

      River: (37.5 BB, 2 players) J:club:
      Hero checks, BTN bets 20 BB, Hero calls 20 BB

      BTN shows T:club: 8:club: (Flush, Jack High) (Pre 40%, Flop 22%, Turn 32%)
      Hero mucks A:spade: K:heart: (One Pair, Aces) (Pre 60%, Flop 78%, Turn 68%)
      BTN wins 75 BB


      I hope this stuff ends soon.
    • vuciitis
      vuciitis
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.02.2011 Posts: 1,323
      Originally posted by RasTweet
      Hey prime

      I think most is said but if you are having a downswing I suggest you take a look at this video. I think you might find it rather interesting.

      Regards

      RasTweet
      awesome video series, tnx for the highlight. i knew variance can be sick, but i had no clue that it can be THAT huge... :f_confused:
    • thesundancekid
      thesundancekid
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.05.2011 Posts: 151
      hate to tell you this but a downswing can last for years...............

      longest downswing I have had was a brutal 6 months...
    • vuciitis
      vuciitis
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.02.2011 Posts: 1,323
      Originally posted by thesundancekid
      hate to tell you this but a downswing can last for years...............

      longest downswing I have had was a brutal 6 months...
      do u have a graph? would be interesting to see it :)
    • thesundancekid
      thesundancekid
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.05.2011 Posts: 151
      no not for that last downswing, at the time it happened i used no HUD. but believe they happen to every 1 its just a matter of when.

      My advice to you is, if you hit a downswing and if you feel like being on TILT stop playing for that day try again next day or take a break for a while or play smaller games so your bankroll don't suffer so much.

      There much more to poker poker than just playing cards you have to have the mental discipline to go with the variance as well.
    • marcepoker17
      marcepoker17
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.06.2011 Posts: 161
      Originally posted by gadget51
      Hi prime333

      In my opinion a downswing lasts for one hand and then it's a new hand, so I suppose a downswing as such is a retrospective a term, making said downswing last as long as it has lasted so far and no more.
      Not even sure if I made sense there, just my thought on it and in no way expertly formulated. :)
      I would be interested in any disagreement.

      Mal.

      Hi Mal,

      I like your way, but I guess it doesn't change the point, just the question.

      In this case, imo, the question would be how many downswings you can get in a row?
      If you can answer to this then you can know how long it could last..

      I don't believe that we can say that anything lasts as long as is has lasted so far and no more.
      Especially for the no more part, I mean, you can say it lasts as long as it lasted so far, and we can't calculate how long it will last, but you can't know it will finish right now, if you don't have a prove of that (in this case a big winning session perhaps).

      So, always imo, you actually can reply to that question, you just need to figure out how many times you had YOUR hands-downswings in a row, see how many hands you play every day and you will have the answer.

      I think, your way of defining a downswing works much better for your mindset then a normal definition, but I don't think it can be used to say that a downswing ends, or just to avoid the question! :)

      I'm just saying my view on it, so please don't think I'm complaining yours!

      Let me know what you think, I find this quite interesting.. :)

      Regards

      Marce
    • UPAY4DINNER
      UPAY4DINNER
      Silver
      Joined: 27.09.2009 Posts: 21,979
      Great post Marce :s_thumbsup:
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