[NL20-NL50] NL50 - Turning hand into bluff best line?

    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      Hi guys

      Villain looks like a nitreg. 23% UTG open so far though.

      Now I think it's standard for him to bluff on this turn so I expect him to have midPP a lot of the time. I have the heart and commitment to this game to fire turn and river!

      Allright?

      Poker Stars $50.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 2144817
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      BTN: $44.22 - VPIP: 13, PFR: 13, 3B: 0, AF: 0,0, Hands: 8
      SB: $29.97 - VPIP: 22, PFR: 17, 3B: 6, AF: 0,0, Hands: 41
      BB: $109.31 - VPIP: 20, PFR: 13, 3B: 7, AF: 1,8, Hands: 116
      UTG: $98.84 - VPIP: 15, PFR: 13, 3B: 5, AF: 2,5, Hands: 152
      Hero (MP): $85.20 - VPIP: 22, PFR: 19, 3B: 8, AF: 3,7, Hands: 215279
      CO: $71.02 - VPIP: 19, PFR: 16, 3B: 8, AF: 6,0, Hands: 204

      Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is MP with A :diamond: Q :diamond:
      UTG raises to $1.50, Hero calls $1.50, 4 folds

      Flop: ($3.75) 2 :club: 8 :spade: 3 :diamond: (2 players)
      UTG bets $2.50, Hero calls $2.50

      Turn: ($8.75) K :club: (2 players)
      UTG checks, Hero bets $6.00, UTG raises to $20, Hero folds
  • 7 replies
    • w34z3l
      w34z3l
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      Joined: 03.08.2009 Posts: 13,295
      Originally posted by Farmarchist
      Villain looks like a nitreg. 23% UTG open so far though.
      23% UTG open is clearly not the stats of a nitreg! What kind of sample are we talking here?

      Originally posted by Farmarchist
      Now I think it's standard for him to bluff on this turn so I expect him to have midPP a lot of the time.
      I guess you are saying you think he'd barrel a Kx on turn presumably since it's a good card to barrel. Villain doesn't necessarily think like this. Given his supposedly wide UTG range he could easily just play a hand like QTs or AJo this way. It's might be a good card to barrel, that doesn't necessarily mean he's firing with his entire bluff-range especially if he's opening wide.

      I think a turn bluff is decent. I think it would also be useful to have information on villains cbet-flop and cbet-turn stats to establish if he is a good target for floating. I also think you can get a better price on your turn bluff. Even $3.75 might do it here.

      In terms of general game dynamics at 50nl I would suprised to see villain show up with a bluff here when he check/raises. Looks like a tricky AA/AK/set.
    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      Only 160 hands sample. You can see it above the hand :) .

      I would say his range is mostly PP's which will x/call turn ones. That is why I bet the turn already kinda big to make my story convincing if I fire the river again for 66% pot.
    • w34z3l
      w34z3l
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      Joined: 03.08.2009 Posts: 13,295
      Originally posted by Farmarchist
      Only 160 hands sample. You can see it above the hand :) .
      Ah, ok. Just seems bizarre that villain has a PFR of 13% and an UTG PFR of 23%. I'd assume villain is running good in EP and actually opening pretty tight.

      Cbet stat is very useful in establishing if you float in the first place.

      Originally posted by Farmarchist
      I would say his range is mostly PP's which will x/call turn ones. That is why I bet the turn already kinda big to make my story convincing if I fire the river again for 66% pot.
      I agree that villain has PP's in his range. But, I also think he may not barrel air (just because the turn is good), and I also think he can play AA/AK/set tricky in this spot, especially if he expects to get floated/bluffed by you a lot.

      So if villain's range is purely PP's, then your line makes sense. Bet big to trap in more money then take it down on the river. However if villain also has a bunch of air/traps in his range also, then you can optimise your turn sizing by betting smaller. You retain the same fold equity but lose less vs a check-raise. I would tend towards this option, but I also see the logic in what you are saying.

      I don't think you necessarily make your hand any more "convincing" by betting big in this spot. In fact, I'd imagine less so, given the board texture and the fact that villain's range looks weak. You'd probably bet smaller with a legitimate value hand. I guess there is also something to be said for not polarizing your perceived range when you hold a bluff.
    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      Yes I agree again.

      I think we can assume most players will just Bet/Bet/Bet AA/AK in his shoes so this speaks a bit more for stabbing and barrelling river. Your point about having a less polarized turnsizing looks fine if he somtimes check/Calls down Kx indeed but if he only has midPP a larger turnbet makes more sense because we create more dead money in the pot (which we can take down on the river).
    • w34z3l
      w34z3l
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      Joined: 03.08.2009 Posts: 13,295
      Originally posted by Farmarchist
      Kx indeed but if he only has midPP a larger turnbet makes more sense because we create more dead money in the pot (which we can take down on the river).
      If he recognizes our range is polarized it doesn't make a huge difference whether he has Kx or 66, he could potentially find a call.

      He also might call 2 barrels anyway with a PP, we don't have any info on this.

      Not sure if most players will always bet/bet/bet AA/AK here. Some of the best regs at least are bound to check nuts on turn sometimes. I think it's a very strong line vs regs with low Ftcbet, many of whom auto-barrel 2 when turn is checked . I've seen it happen so much at 50nl: pick the right opponent and checking AK on this turn is super-profitable.

      My default would be to stick with smaller bet sizings in general. You get a better price on your bluff and make it harder for a good opponent to call by keeping your perceived-range merged.
    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
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      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      Thanks!
    • w34z3l
      w34z3l
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      Joined: 03.08.2009 Posts: 13,295
      No probs, gl