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[NL20-NL50] [NL50] JJ river shove

    • ains21
      Joined: 04.06.2011 Posts: 303

      Villain is 22/19 reg w 3.5 agf (3.4k hands). I have a note on him reading that he has triple barreled pretty light w some missed draws and small pairs.

      C-bet flop: 67%
      C-bet turn: 70%
      C-bet river: 68%

      Fold to RR flop: 38%
      Fold to RR turn: 67%
      Fold to RR river: no sample

      Agg%: 42/41/26

      Flop and turn I feel std. vs. this villain since he would be barreling any FD, T9s, JTs and some low PP on this board to make me fold 99-JJ. On the river he obv sometimes has some FD but also has AQ/KK/AA as well as missed GS/low pairs he decided to barrel (this is great card for him to bluff on).

      Do you think shoving here can be profitable? Can we rep the flush here since we flatted the turn? It was kind of small turn bet so we can easy have 98hh/TJhh/KJhh/AJhh.

      Party, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      CO: $55.83 (111.7 bb)
      MP: $140.07 (280.1 bb)
      BTN: $91.07 (182.1 bb)
      Hero (BB): $67.07 (134.1 bb)
      UTG: $53.17 (106.3 bb)
      SB: $11.44 (22.9 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BB with J J
      2 folds, CO raises to $1.50, 2 folds, Hero calls $1

      Flop: ($3.25) Q 8 3 (2 players)
      Hero checks, CO bets $2, Hero calls $2

      Turn: ($7.25) 4 (2 players)
      Hero checks, CO bets $4, Hero calls $4

      River: ($15.25) 6 (2 players)
      Hero checks, CO bets $9.50, Hero raises to $59.57 and is all-in, CO folds

      $34.25 pot ($1.71 rake)
      Final Board: Q 8 3 4 6
      CO mucked and lost (-$17 net)
      Hero mucked J J and won $32.54 ($15.54 net)
  • 1 reply
    • w34z3l
      Joined: 03.08.2009 Posts: 13,331
      Hey ains21,

      Given the stats, flop/turn are fine.

      I guess the question you have to ask is, does villain just bet KK/AA/AQ/sets 2/3rds pot regardless of if the flush draw gets there, or would he decide to bet smaller or maybe even check back.

      This is something you'd only know by playing with villain, is he capable of going for thin value, or is his river range very polarized here. Vs a more merged range you might fold out overpairs/sets/Qx, but vs a polarised river range shoving as a bluff is a mistake when you have a perfect bluff-catcher.

      In other words if villain only ever has busted-draws/small-pairs, your river bluff is a huge negative freeroll. I.e he snap calls when he has a flush and folds his bluffs.