Determine if you are a fish or if you run bad

    • Desultory
      Desultory
      Basic
      Joined: 06.02.2013 Posts: 127
      Apparently, if you filter your graph for VPIP = true, or VPIP = yes in HEM2, and if your red and blue line aren't positive, you are doing something severely wrong. However I am thinking that even 'fish' can have positive VPIP showdown/nonshowdown winnings so I am calling out all you recreational players and in fact any players to post your graphs of the above. Ideally graphing hands and big blinds.

      Here is mine
  • 100 replies
    • staktas
      staktas
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.03.2011 Posts: 1,346
      Hey. Nice concept you have here - if you are winning in pots where you put money yourself, that must mean that you aren't doing much wrong.


      There's mine over 44k hands of NL2 and NL5:


      Also, put your graph in [spoiler]. Doesn't look very good like this.
    • Rihard4a
      Rihard4a
      Gold
      Joined: 08.09.2010 Posts: 2,038
      So I am running bad.

    • NightFrostaSS
      NightFrostaSS
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.10.2008 Posts: 5,255
      Think you'd have to be extreme fish to have any of these negative with this filter on. Like limp/call c/f type



      Is your redline positive w filter off?
    • Desultory
      Desultory
      Basic
      Joined: 06.02.2013 Posts: 127
      Originally posted by NightFrostaSS
      Think you'd have to be extreme fish to have any of these negative with this filter on. Like limp/call c/f type
      I thought this too but if 'fish' are losing -50bb/100 approx then they are losing more than blinds, therefore losing money when they VPIP.

      There probably aren't any bad recreational players on this site, as if you join a training site, you are already half way to not having a win rate of -50bb/100, but I was hoping there might be someone out there who can show me a graph with negative VPIP.

      I also think that maybe flat blue represents 'run bad' more accurately than 'allin EV' (for cash game players anyways).

      Staktas, Rihard4a and any one else posting; would you mind stating if if your
      bb/100 > 0 please :) otherwise I have no way to determine whether you are professional or not.

      My red line when not filtered is negative for sure. I wonder if Staktas' is negative? Because his red line is above blue line. Interesting interesting.
    • Rihard4a
      Rihard4a
      Gold
      Joined: 08.09.2010 Posts: 2,038
      For 176k hands, 2bb/100. :(
    • hendo2000
      hendo2000
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.11.2012 Posts: 191
      Small sample size really but here's mine, NL2-NL10

    • staktas
      staktas
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.03.2011 Posts: 1,346
      My bb/100 is almsost -4. I'm running like shit, though. Or at least I hope so..

      That's my graph without filter:
    • Desultory
      Desultory
      Basic
      Joined: 06.02.2013 Posts: 127
      After further thought. I am thinking you can be -25bb/100 and have a break even blue red line. As blinds will cost 1.5/6 (for 6max) * 100 = -25bb/100 if you break even when VPIP. Not sure if this is right and I haven't factored in rake either.

      Given staktas is -4 on this sample and substantially positive on VPIP, it kind of supports the above. Thank you for being brave enough to say.

      Staktas; did you change your style of play around 26k hands? If not I think you ran bad in the first 26k ish. (I'm Ignoring allin EV)
    • staktas
      staktas
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.03.2011 Posts: 1,346
      Oh, it's nothing. I'm not afraid to say that I'm a fish :f_biggrin:

      At 26k I moved down to NL2. People l/c and then folding to cbets TONS - compared to NL5. I was playing NL10 normal tables some time ago, but NL5 zoom, seems much tougher. Or I just ran bad..
    • Desultory
      Desultory
      Basic
      Joined: 06.02.2013 Posts: 127
      I doubt there is enough difference at those limits to show up in your graph. I confident it is variance if you didn't change your style, so its a + for my theory on flat blue line = run bad.

      Mmmm, your redline changes direction to at 26k. I think its likely you changed how you play here.
    • axelphoney
      axelphoney
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.10.2009 Posts: 2,397
      Originally posted by Desultory

      I also think that maybe flat blue represents 'run bad' more accurately than 'allin EV' (for cash game players anyways).
      I find this part very interesting. It feels like am not running very well this month, but yet I am running a lot above EV. And as it turns out here is how my graph looks when filtered for VPIP pots only:



      So maybe (and hopefully :P ) there could be some truth to what you are saying
    • nmilan84
      nmilan84
      Silver
      Joined: 21.07.2010 Posts: 378
      Ok, here is my graph...

      I doubt you'll find worse player posting his graphs like this :f_cool:

      Filtered graph:

      [IMG]


      All time graph:
      [IMG]


      Hope it helps :f_biggrin:
    • Desultory
      Desultory
      Basic
      Joined: 06.02.2013 Posts: 127
      Originally posted by axelphoney
      Originally posted by Desultory

      I also think that maybe flat blue represents 'run bad' more accurately than 'allin EV' (for cash game players anyways).
      I find this part very interesting. It feels like am not running very well this month, but yet I am running a lot above EV. And as it turns out here is how my graph looks when filtered for VPIP pots only:



      So maybe (and hopefully :P ) there could be some truth to what you are saying
      Its just a suspicion. Difficult to prove, but I think both should be steadily going up, and if they are not, yet you are playing the 'same', then I think it is variance. Its related to how you play as well of course and thats why I say 'playing the same' yet seeing indescrepencies in your line could be related to run bad. Allin EV categorically doesn't prove anything in my mind - its a nonsense stat for cash games. Maybe not for SNG's but I don't know.

      Please note however that your blue line is much lower than your redline, meaning you are a more laggy aggressive type player than taggy. That may mean that your blue line will normally be flat. I can only talk from experience of being a tag - i.e. negative red line, positive blue line without filter. Is your win rate over this sample > 0 ??
    • Desultory
      Desultory
      Basic
      Joined: 06.02.2013 Posts: 127
      Originally posted by nmilan84
      Ok, here is my graph...

      I doubt you'll find worse player posting his graphs like this :f_cool:

      Filtered graph:

      [IMG]


      All time graph:
      [IMG]


      Hope it helps :f_biggrin:
      Thank you! Found a negative VPIP blue line. Not negative VPIP red though. I want both :)

      Very very interesting. I would be interested in general about how you play. If you end up having normal tag stats, then we made have found the unluckiest run bad player ever. But I suspect you are super aggro?

      Its interesting because like axelphoney, you have very positive VPIP red line and VPIP blue line much lower, meaning your are laggy or loose at least. I imagine you are barreling ALOT or calling down ALOT. Probably barreling and being uber aggressive given high red line. Its approx twice as high as my VPIP redline over 100k hands. It might not be relatable as I factored up, but in my loose theory, that would make you twice as aggressive as me? Which is like almost 100% barrels!?? :)
    • nmilan84
      nmilan84
      Silver
      Joined: 21.07.2010 Posts: 378
      Originally posted by Desultory

      Very very interesting. I would be interested in general about how you play.
      Ok, I tried to put some stats of my VPIP play maybe I've left out something important?

      [IMG]


      I do Cbet more than 2/3 of flops, but on turn I am just a lost :f_cry: with no idea what to do...

      Before starting a blog I almost never folded river, sometimes even with A high (all on NL10), after that you can say I started taking notice of my play and reviewing my hands in HM...

      This is my VPIP filter after starting the blog

      [IMG]


      Maybe there still is hope for me ?(
    • Desultory
      Desultory
      Basic
      Joined: 06.02.2013 Posts: 127
      I've never specifically looked at VPIP stats before. But I don't think your flop or turn cbet is out of order. Do you raise post flop a lot? I would assume you don't barrel off after raising post flop given you have an in order turn barrel%. So you aren't as aggro as I expected. Do you bet every time someone checks to you and then barrel off?
      I don't understand why your redline would be so high unless really subtle stat % make massive red line differences. But I doubt that.

      I think your WTSD is very high and your W$SD is low because of that. This would imply you call/barrel a lot more. Probably call it seems. That would explain your low blue line.

      Because you have been helpful I want to give you a piece of advice. Its impossible to say this is good advice given the information shown but I reckon if you fold 50%-25% of the hands that you like to call post flop (i.e. take the worst 25% of the hands you usually call in a spot and fold them). This might broadly make a difference to your blue line. Obvious every spot is different so this isn't the best advice ever, but overall I think this MAY make a positive difference to you at micro levels. Maybe not though - because its so broad it may end up being a hindrance to your play. Up to you if you think its worth a try :) Then re post with your new blue line after a bit of a sample. ;) ;)
    • NightFrostaSS
      NightFrostaSS
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.10.2008 Posts: 5,255
      Think his high WTSD is absolutely the reason for his red line and poor results. If he'd start folding more red line winrate would naturally decrease and blue line increase due to not paying off as often with weak holdings.
    • DannyJQ
      DannyJQ
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.07.2011 Posts: 1,507
      No Filters:




      With VPIP Filter:




      I'm not sure if I started running that bad or just playing bad? I assume its kinda combination of both, but would like to know more. Discuss and let me know if u need any stats =)
    • zumpar
      zumpar
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.02.2012 Posts: 1,185
      u mean like last 10k hands? thats absolutely normal, i just had a 28k hands b/e stretch vs complete fish... dont worry about it at all ;)