[NL20-NL50] NL50 - KTo 2p bad river

    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      Hi guys

      Really close decision on the river I think.

      Villain is unknown. I've got 5 hands on him at the time and had no reason to think he could be fishy.

      Now he could obv have some flushes. I do not think he has bluffs here BUT he COULD have KQ/AK and maybe also TJ for blockbetting right? He could also have KJ ofcourse.

      Also straights are possible.

      Poker Stars $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 2145511
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      BTN: $50.50
      SB: $49.25
      BB: $75.10
      UTG: $50.00
      MP: $88.98
      Hero (CO): $63.72

      Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is CO with T :heart: K :diamond:
      2 folds, Hero raises to $1.25, 2 folds, BB calls $0.75

      Flop: ($2.75) K :spade: 6 :spade: T :club: (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $2, BB calls $2

      Turn: ($6.75) 5 :diamond: (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $4.50, BB calls $4.50

      River: ($15.75) J :spade: (2 players)
      BB bets $7.50, Hero folds
  • 4 replies
    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      So I guess we have to call for those odds if his range is:

      nl.pokerstrategy.com
      Board: Ks6sTc5dJs
      Equity Winst Split
      MP2 39.02% 39.02% 0.00% { KdTh }
      MP3 60.98% 60.98% 0.00% { JJ, AKs, KJs+, JTs, AsQs, AsJs, QsJs, AsTs, QsTs, As9s, Ks9s, Qs9s, Js9s, Ts9s, As8s, Ks8s, Ts8s, 9s8s, As7s, Ks7s, 9s7s, 8s7s, As6s, 7s6s, As5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, KJo+, JTo }


      Without KQ and AK equity goes down quickly and we have a fold

      nl.pokerstrategy.com
      Board: Ks6sTc5dJs
      Equity Winst Split
      MP2 19.35% 19.35% 0.00% { KdTh }
      MP3 80.65% 80.65% 0.00% { JJ, KJs, JTs, AsQs, AsJs, QsJs, AsTs, QsTs, As9s, Ks9s, Qs9s, Js9s, Ts9s, As8s, Ks8s, Ts8s, 9s8s, As7s, Ks7s, 9s7s, 8s7s, As6s, 7s6s, As5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, KJo, JTo }


      Close close :)
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi Farma,

      I don't think we can really expect him to have AK in his range BB vs CO especially when we make it just 2.5x preflop. Even KQ is a long shot but we can keep them in. Also having AQs and even AJs is not too realistic (at least AQ).

      As played I would call. Even in one of our worst case scenarios we are still not far from breakeven and I think he can block bet like this too. And we get to learn about his range/line.
    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      Ok thought so. It actually comes down on him having KQ enough or sometimes spewing with some QJ/AJ
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by Farmarchist
      Ok thought so. It actually comes down on him having KQ enough or sometimes spewing with some QJ/AJ
      It does.

      In spots that are usually very close I tend to call.