[NL2-NL10] NL10 KK vs reg on A hi flop

    • gavinonymous
      gavinonymous
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2008 Posts: 1,146
      vs 20/16 reg 1.6k hands, 67% fold to flop cbet, 2.6% 3bet

      Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players

      Hero (MP): $20.48 (204.8 bb)
      CO: $7.75 (77.5 bb)
      BTN: $10.10 (101 bb)
      SB: $5.99 (59.9 bb)
      BB: $11.31 (113.1 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is MP with K K
      Hero raises to $0.30, CO folds, BTN calls $0.30, 2 folds

      Flop: ($0.75) T A 8 (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.50, BTN calls $0.50

      Turn: ($1.75) 3 (2 players)
      Hero checks, BTN bets $0.90, Hero calls $0.90

      River: ($3.55) K (2 players)
      Hero checks, BTN bets $2.70, Hero?
  • 3 replies
    • Tomaloc
      Tomaloc
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.01.2011 Posts: 6,858
      how often does he bet vs missed cbet? 67% fold to cbet in such a sample is pretty high and so cbetting might not be the way to go, quite possible he only continues with better.

      turn is a bit awkward when he folds so much to cbets.
      if we expect him to float light, it should be fine to c/c turn (and against some players even river on blanks), but that does not seem to be the case.

      as played it's a clear c/r on the river imo. he has TT/88/some AK and ATs, okay sometimes he might have slowplayed AA/QJs (maybe you can find a read on these 1.6k hands) but that shouldn't scare you off.
      you should have over 50% against the range that continues vs your c/r.
    • gavinonymous
      gavinonymous
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2008 Posts: 1,146
      I don't have so many stats up, so only notice at the time (9-tabling) that he's a reg that would float me. He knows my game fairly well also having 1.6k hands on me, but I didn't have any reads on slowplayed monsters on him specifically.

      Your thinking was the same as mine. I did c/r.

      Q J
    • Tomaloc
      Tomaloc
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.01.2011 Posts: 6,858
      if you think he knows your game you might want to also include in your post what you think he might do about it.

      as for results, too bad :f_cry:
      against a somewhat pessimistic range (imo) we are getting 50%.

      Board: A:diamond: T:heart: 8:club:  3:diamond:  K:club:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP3    50.00%  50.00%   0.00% { KhKs }
      CO     50.00%  50.00%   0.00% { AA, TT, 88, AKs, QJs, AcTc }

      even if he doesn't call with AT, he also shouldn't have all AA/QJ combos which should make our shove at least breakeven. in practice we are likely to most often have a better scenario so it should be +EV.