[NL20-NL50] NL25 FH: Two pairs on the Flop

    • Michailewic
      Michailewic
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.04.2008 Posts: 1,418
      Known players:
      Position:
      Stack
      Hero:
      $25,00
      BB:
      $20,56
      UTG:
      $25,00
      UTG+1:
      $10,00
      UTG+2:
      $25,35
      MP1:
      $25,17
      MP2:
      $5,99
      MP3:
      $25,75
      CO:
      $24,92
      BU:
      $12,61

      0,1/0,25 No-Limit Hold'em (10 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.58 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is SB with K:club: , 8:spade:
      3 folds, MP1 calls $0,25, 4 folds, Hero calls $0,15, BB checks.

      Flop: ($0,75) J:club: , 8:diamond: , K:diamond: (3 players)
      Hero checks, BB checks, MP1 bets $0,72, Hero raises to $2,25, BB folds, MP1 raises to $7,25, Hero should?
  • 14 replies
    • Faye6891
      Faye6891
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.11.2007 Posts: 1,234
      I'd fold PF. IMO, K8o is too weak even to complete the SB.

      As played, I'd lead out on the flop. The board is drawy and you're against 2 opponents, you definetely have to protect.

      After villain's reraise I'm folding, there isn't a lot you can beat here. You're behind against KJ, splitting against K8 and winning against J8. If he's got a set, he has you in pretty bad shape, although KK and JJ are unlikely, 88 are quite possible.
      Even against an OESFD it's almost 50/50 (you're slightly behind actually).

      I'd rather fold and wait for a better spot.
    • kukac26
      kukac26
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.11.2007 Posts: 126
      Completing SB with K8 off is fine. Really.

      You flopped two pair, we're felting this hand. There are just so many hands you're beating at this point that folding is bad.

      Pity we only have 17 hands to work with... 33 vpip is loose cannon material, tho

      88 aren't particurarly likely (or Q10s for that case). Best case scenario is KQ/AK, worst case is KJ, but if you think that everytime you flop top/bottom two pair somebody flopped top two, you're losing too much money.
    • swissmoumout
      swissmoumout
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.02.2007 Posts: 3,385
      Hi Maichailewic,
      Completing is ok, although a fold would probably be better. You definitely have to lead the flop though - don't try to check/raise in limped pots, you'll usually not get a bet.
      Because of the board structure, you can shove imo. JJ and KK would've raised preflop, same with KJ (alhtough it will just limp sometimes), and the flop is very drawy.

      btw, here's a very similar hand on which TribunCaesar and xylere also commented: NL25 SH: 2pair on drawy board, freeplay from the BB

      Regards,
      Craig
    • Faye6891
      Faye6891
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.11.2007 Posts: 1,234
      Originally posted by swissmoumout
      Because of the board structure, you can shove imo.
      I don't think villain will reraise hero's check/raise here with only a pair. (At least not too often). Do you really think a shove is that good? Care to give a more detailed explanation? (I still think folding is better :P )

      @kukac26: You can't really consider villain's VPIP 33, we have a very small sample size (11 hands). I'm considering villain here to be unknown.
    • Faye6891
      Faye6891
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.11.2007 Posts: 1,234
      Forgot to check "Advise the judge of taking another look at this thread". :D
    • swissmoumout
      swissmoumout
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.02.2007 Posts: 3,385
      There's a button for that, no need to post again ;)
      And the reason we can shove here is that not only the occasional (but rare) one-pair hand will shove, but there are also a lot of draws . It's really the same as the hand I linked, have a look at the explanations there. But just in case, here's an equilator calculation. I give villain all combo draws, 2 pairs and 88. KQ, AK, JJ, KK, AA will raise preflop, so I won't include them (although I guess you could include the occasional KQ and AA, since you'll sometimes see limps)

      code:
      Board:         Kd Jc 8d 
      
                     Equity    Win       Tie       Loss      Hand
      Player 1:      66.934 %  66.883 %  0.101 %   33.016 %  Kc8s
      Player 2:      33.066 %  33.016 %  0.101 %   66.883 %  88, KJs, QTs+, J7s+, T9s, 97s


      As you see, we're 2:1 favorites here, so it's a no-brainer. But as I said, don't check/raise in limped pots, just lead

      Regards,
      Craig
    • Faye6891
      Faye6891
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.11.2007 Posts: 1,234
      Well, I used a different range.

      Board: Kd Jc 8d


      equity win tie pots won pots tied
      Hand 0: 36.296% 36.01% 00.28% 5348 42.00 { Kc8s }

      Hand 1: 63.704% 63.42% 00.28% 9418 42.00 { 88, KJs, QdJd, QdTd, JdTd, Jd9d, Jc8c, Jh8h, Js8s, Jd7d, Td9d, 9d7d, KJo }

      And if I put AA and KQ in his range I got:

      Board: Kd Jc 8d
      Dead:

      equity win tie pots won pots tied
      Hand 0: 53.069% 52.65% 00.42% 15115 121.00 { Kc8s }

      Hand 1: 46.931% 46.51% 00.42% 13353 121.00 { AA, 88, KJs+, QdJd, QdTd, JdTd, Jd9d, Jc8c, Jh8h, Js8s, Jd7d, Td9d, 9d7d, KJo+ }

      Am I missing something?
    • Faye6891
      Faye6891
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.11.2007 Posts: 1,234
      OFF-TOPIC: Well, I tried clicking the button, but nothing seems to have happenned. :(
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      I would get it all-in.
      Board is very drawy, player is loose and you have top and bottom pair.
      SInce he has 0 pfr you could easily face here AK or AA.
    • Faye6891
      Faye6891
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.11.2007 Posts: 1,234
      Originally posted by Kaitz20
      I would get it all-in.
      Board is very drawy, player is loose and you have top and bottom pair.
      SInce he has 0 pfr you could easily face here AK or AA.
      But his sample size is only 11 hands. Can we really consider him a loose player?
    • Michailewic
      Michailewic
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.04.2008 Posts: 1,418
      So, if I checked-raised him, then he re-raised me, my further re-raise all-in would be a good move?
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Originally posted by Faye6891
      Originally posted by Kaitz20
      I would get it all-in.
      Board is very drawy, player is loose and you have top and bottom pair.
      SInce he has 0 pfr you could easily face here AK or AA.
      But his sample size is only 11 hands. Can we really consider him a loose player?
      Against unknown I´m getting it all-in.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Originally posted by Michailewic
      So, if I checked-raised him, then he re-raised me, my further re-raise all-in would be a good move?
      You have two options:
      - fold to his re-raise
      -shove

      Since I believe that you´re often ahead then shoving is better than folding.
      Calling and giving him free card is the worst option.
    • Kruppe
      Kruppe
      Black
      Joined: 20.02.2008 Posts: 2,144
      pokerstove gives me 44.1% equity against this range:

      AcAd,AhAs,
      88,
      AdKd,AsKs,
      AcKd,AdKc,AdKh,AhKd,AsKc
      AdJd,
      KJs,
      KJo
      QdJd,QdTd,Qd9d,
      JdTd,Jd9d,J8s,Jd7d,
      Td9d,

      realistic range? I took some AA and AK combinations out, as it is less likely that the opponent would limp these hands.

      the equity changes a lot depending on how many and which AK and AA combinations you include.