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[NL2-NL10] 33 preflop ?

    • staselu
      Joined: 02.01.2008 Posts: 532
      IPoker, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      SB: $4.95 (49.5 bb)
      Hero (BB): $10 (100 bb)
      UTG: $4.89 (48.9 bb)
      MP: $10 (100 bb)
      CO: $11.43 (114.3 bb)
      BTN: $11.03 (110.3 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BB with 3 3
      3 folds, BTN raises to $0.30, SB folds, Hero calls $0.20

      Flop: ($0.65) 9 6 3 (2 players)
      Hero checks, BTN bets $0.65, Hero raises to $2.40, BTN raises to $10.73 and is all-in, Hero calls $7.30 and is all-in

      Turn: ($20.05) A (2 players, 2 are all-in)
      River: ($20.05) K (2 players, 2 are all-in)

      vpip /pfr 37/30
      steal from CO 56%(9samples)
      fold to 3bet 55%
      cbet flop 50%
      total agg % 38
      wts 14
      hands 77

      Given the sample size we have, is is profitable to set mine ?

      if he steals wide then his range on the flop will be weak most of the time, so we have less implied odds and I think we should fold preflop, because in the long run, calling in such spots will be -EV

      -If villain would have for example a steal range from CO 18%, and fold to 3bet 50% I would call for set value

      -If villain would have for example a steal range from CO 28% and fold to 3bet of 74% I think bluff 3betting is more +EV
  • 1 reply
    • BogdanPS
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi Staselu,

      Preflop: You are only investing 2 BB to see a flop. You flop a set 1 in 8 times so that means that on average you lose 2 BB x 7 = 14 BB.

      That's all you need to make the one time you hit the set.

      Pot after you call is 6.5 BB. One cbet from him adds another 4 BB or so. And since he seems on the aggro side and has position we should have no problem getting a few more BBs from him.

      So set mining is definitely profitable. We can also add the fact that we can also take some pots away occasionally.