[NL20-NL50] NL50 77 cr flop

    • double2
      Joined: 04.11.2008 Posts: 14,642
      Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      CO: $115.75 (231.5 bb)
      BTN: $51.99 (104 bb)
      Hero (SB): $50 (100 bb)
      BB: $39.50 (79 bb)
      UTG: $54.53 (109.1 bb)
      MP: $16.30 (32.6 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is SB with 7 7
      UTG raises to $1.50, 3 folds, Hero calls $1.25, BB folds

      Flop: ($3.50) 7 5 Q (2 players)
      Hero checks, UTG bets $2.76, Hero raises to $7.75, UTG calls $4.99

      Turn: ($19) K (2 players)
      Hero bets $12, UTG calls $12

      River: ($43) T (2 players)

      Villain 7.8k hands
      open UTG 15%
      fold to 3bet 55% (UTG 55%)
      cbet flop 61%
      cbet turn 50%
      fold cbet flop vs raise 57% (21)
      WTSD 25%
      WWSF 42%
      Agg freq 37/31/25

      Was planing on b/folding turn. River I have a hard time figuring out the best play. AQ with a spade is not calling me, KQ probably is, flushes obv
  • 1 reply
    • EmanuelC16
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897

      Yes, flushes call but since he opened UTG and Ks is on the board, he has fewer strong flushes in his range imo. Next, I think KQ doesn't fold and neither will QTs.. It's basically a close spot whether you can get value of not but he will clearly call lighter than he bets so your EV for betting should be higher than just check/folding considering all that happened in the hand. Given some dynamics, reg vs reg you can see even QJ call here. Regs tend to overestimate how aggressive another reg is.