[NL20-NL50] NL50 KK 3way pot

    • double2
      double2
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 04.11.2008 Posts: 14,642
      Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      UTG: $48.75 (97.5 bb)
      Hero (MP): $72.19 (144.4 bb)
      CO: $68.03 (136.1 bb)
      BTN: $54.61 (109.2 bb)
      SB: $50 (100 bb)
      BB: $59.75 (119.5 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is MP with K K
      UTG folds, Hero raises to $1.50, CO folds, BTN calls $1.50, SB folds, BB calls $1

      Flop: ($4.75) 2 7 3 (3 players)
      BB bets $2.72, Hero calls $2.72, BTN calls $2.72

      Turn: ($12.91) 6 (3 players)
      BB bets $7, Hero calls $7, BTN raises to $20.50,

      BB 13k hands
      24/19/7.9%
      squeeze BB 6.6%
      donkbet flop 8%
      WTSD 24%
      WWSF 48%
      Agg freq 47/34/23

      BU 1,9k hands
      46/29/3.8%
      call open BU 42%
      fold to cbet flop 45%
      WTSD 26%
      WWSF 48%
      Agg freq 34/45/39

      Not sure if I'm comfortable raising flop against that donkbet, I don't think it would be great. Turn is also a problem after BB folds cause I have no idea if BU is capable of a semi bluff here.
  • 3 replies
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      Hiya,

      The flop is close between call and raise imo because in such a case I think BB can lead with this sizing hands like overpair that will definitely pay off a raise. He is again basically targetting BU IMO so that means a more depolarised leading range consisting of more A7s, 88 type hands that usually.

      As played, the turn is a clear fold in my opinion, although vs BB's bet you can go for a raise/fold. His range is the same as on the flop, you still are ahead and he will probably still call most of his made hands. You also kick out BU's equity from the pot most often if he has a hand like A5 with good equity against your KK. The final benefit here is that you raise to about $17 and don't have to put in money on the river usually because you will get a check OOP from BB 90% of the time or more. You are very likely to get a free showdown.
    • double2
      double2
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 04.11.2008 Posts: 14,642
      So you would prefere raise/fold flop assuming he is only shoving better because my line is strong? But in that sense don't you think he will actually fold the hands I'm trying to value bet? (88-TT)
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      Originally posted by double2
      So you would prefere raise/fold flop assuming he is only shoving better because my line is strong? But in that sense don't you think he will actually fold the hands I'm trying to value bet? (88-TT)
      I think he will call a high percentage of the time with those hands, 7x and flushdraws and shove only hands like sets and combo draws. I do think when shoves you are behind his range too much but he won't shove that often. The spot has to do with what you also know and what another regular probably knows: you play honest and loose passive player pays off too much. Knowing this, obviously his betting range should becomes more depolarised and include thin value hands against the fish as a target.