[NL2-NL10] [SH] NL5 ATs 18-03-13 (speed)

    • Resilence
      Resilence
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.03.2012 Posts: 934
      IPoker, $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      BB: $5.32 (106.4 bb)
      UTG: $3.13 (62.6 bb)
      Hero (MP): $5.50 (110 bb)
      CO: $4.64 (92.8 bb)
      BTN: $1.98 (39.6 bb)
      SB: $7.65 (153 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is MP with T A
      UTG folds, Hero raises to $0.15, CO raises to $0.45, 3 folds, Hero raises to $1.35, CO calls $0.90

      Flop: ($2.77) 4 9 A (2 players)
      Hero bets $1.38, CO raises to $3.29, Hero calls $1.91

      Turn: ($9.35) 2 (2 players)
      River: ($9.35) K (2 players)

      Hi,
      how bad was this play?

      Villain:
      20/20/30 - 30 VPIP/PFR/3BET - Hands

      Did I overestimate my stats here?
      My reason for 4betting was his 3bet stats, but I think I overestimated the stats...

      On the flop I felt committed, but also felt I had to bet this flop, as I didn't belive him?
  • 4 replies
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi Resilence,

      Once you cbet the flop you can't really fold

      You have almost no sample on the guy so you definitely over estimated them. Do you think 30 hands is enough to estimate the stats?

      Given his less than 100 BB stack I would fold preflop.
    • kymupa
      kymupa
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.10.2009 Posts: 22,364
      Hello,

      Preflop I don't think that 4betting is too bad, but we can definitely fold here and wait for a better spot or at least for a bigger sample size.

      As played preflop, if you could go back now, what would you do on this flop and why? What worse hands do you think are calling our cbet and raising against it?

      Best,
      Plamen
    • Resilence
      Resilence
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.03.2012 Posts: 934
      There aint many worse that raises on the flop, ofc I could be against tilty KK,QQ,JJ. If I check the flop, Only Ax hands will really bet here, perhaps some QQ, but think KK would shove preflop...
      Not sure 99+ would call here unless we are deep so thats unlikely as well.

      So I guess checking is an ok option, I guess, but if he shows aggression, I really have no idea where I'm at and should x/f. Coud be a call if he gives me odds to but doubt it...
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by Resilence
      There aint many worse that raises on the flop, ofc I could be against tilty KK,QQ,JJ. If I check the flop, Only Ax hands will really bet here, perhaps some QQ, but think KK would shove preflop...
      Not sure 99+ would call here unless we are deep so thats unlikely as well.

      So I guess checking is an ok option, I guess, but if he shows aggression, I really have no idea where I'm at and should x/f. Coud be a call if he gives me odds to but doubt it...
      He called a 4-bet so his range should theoretically be stronger. He has Ax and pairs usually and sometimes rare broadways like KQ/QJ.

      I think that I would prefer a small bet even less than you did (less than $1) to induce and we'd go with the hand.