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[NL2-NL10] NL4 SH ZOOM Royal Draw

    • adsefghijk
      Joined: 19.02.2011 Posts: 247
      Hand converted with online hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.02/$0.04 No-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)

      Known players:
      BU (Hero):

      Preflop: Hero is BU with K, 8.
      3 folds, Hero raises to $0.12, SB folds, BB calls $0.08.

      Flop: ($0.26) A, J, Q (2 players)
      BB bets $0.12, Hero raises to $4.88(All-In), BB folds, Hero gets uncalled bet back.

      Final Pot: $0.38.

      What should I do in this situation? I don't think I have enough equity vs his calling range, but does he fold ofen enough to be profitable?
  • 1 reply
    • Tomaloc
      Joined: 17.01.2011 Posts: 7,015
      what should you do? call or raise smaller if you feel that he's weak. this massive overbet shove is DEFINITELY not optimal.
      calling can't be a mistake, as you definitely are priced in to draw.

      now, just for theoretical funzies, i took some minutes to go a bit deeper into this shove. it seems that it is not THAT bad as i first had thought.
      we are investing $4.88 to win $0.38 :f_biggrin: since we are semibluffing all-in and guaranteed to see a showdown, though, we have a share of the pot. drawing to the nuts helps in that we always have live outs.

      let's say we get called, against a possible "trap" range that could take this line our equity is something like:

      Board: A:spade: J:spade: Q:spade:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      BU     39.10%  37.88%   1.22% { Ks8h }
      BB     60.90%  59.68%   1.22% { JJ, AQs-AJs, KTs, QJs, Ts9s, Ts8s, 9s8s, 9s7s, 8s7s, 8s6s, 7s6s, 6s5s, AQo-AJo, KTo, QJo }

      so, when we are called our share of the $10 pot should be about $3.90 (not considering rake).
      that means that we are losing about $1 (we invested $4.88, but EV-wise we are getting $3.90 back) when he calls, probably like $1.2 with rake.

      so, is he folding often enough for it to be profitable?

      what is his preflop calling range? what is his donking range?
      i don't think he donks as a pure bluff very often, and he could be trapping with strong hands sometimes.
      that said, he shouldn't have a strong hand very often with that betsizing, but considering that we need him to fold like 3 times as often as he calls, it shouldn't be worth it.

      so shoving should be -EV, but not by as much as i had thought. :f_biggrin:

      the more he is a huge station (like he bet/calls some random Ax here) the more of a loss you will have.
      it gets better as he folds more often (you are making profit by having him fold, after all), but then you could still just get him to bet/fold that range with a much smaller raise.

      hope that helped :f_biggrin: