fish overbetshoves flop - population read?

    • alderfalder
      alderfalder
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 16.01.2010 Posts: 1,994
      EDIT: Might be wrong here. feel free to move it into the strategy section^^

      I want to talk a bit about this certain spot:

      You got a tablespot (1tabling,you saw him limping, 60/20 stats on first 20 hands) but more or less still completely unknown.

      One thing they love to do is just shipping the flop. (push Flop against your cbet. Donkpush multiway... whatever)

      I mean, rangewise it's a pretty easy strategy to beat. Your odds are so bad that it's good if you just call nuts. But after seeing a lot of crappy hands they did it with I don't know whether I'm missing too much value by folding too much...

      Would like to hear some more comments, whether you can make some kind of population-fish-read in this case.

      Here two examples to demonstrate what I mean. ( Just having my small laptop database here, but you will remember some spots where this happened to you in a similar way)

      $5/$10 No Limit Holdem
      FullTiltPoker
      5 Players
      Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

      Stacks:
      UTG ($1,419.50) 142bb
      CO ($1,249) 125bb
      BTN ($881.80) 88bb
      alderfalder (SB) ($1,000) 100bb
      BB ($1,054.50) 105bb

      Pre-Flop: ($15, 5 players) alderfalder is SB A:club: A:diamond:
      UTG raises to $25, 2 folds, alderfalder raises to $95, 1 fold, UTG calls $70

      Flop: J:diamond: J:heart: Q:club: ($200, 2 players)
      alderfalder bets $132, UTG goes all-in $1,324.50, $773 to alderfalder ($773)?


      €2/€4 No Limit Holdem
      PokerStars
      6 Players
      Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

      Stacks:
      UTG (€418) 105bb
      UTG+1 (€743.67) 186bb
      alderfalder (CO) (€591.66) 148bb
      BTN (€455.40) 114bb
      SB (€247.27) 62bb
      BB (€442.01) 111bb

      Pre-Flop: (€6, 6 players) alderfalder is CO K:diamond: K:spade:
      2 folds, alderfalder raises to €12, 1 fold, SB calls €10, BB calls €8

      Flop: 5:club: 6:spade: 4:diamond: (€36, 3 players)
      SB checks, BB checks, alderfalder bets €26, SB goes all-in €235.27, BB folds, €209.27 to alderfalder (€553.66)?
  • 8 replies
    • tolari
      tolari
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2010 Posts: 761
      I think you can always put him on a range, I've seen recreational players doing this with with under pocket paris, all kinds of draws, nuts, TP, very rarely pure bluff but it also happens...

      so first case:
      TT+, AQs-AJs, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, AQo-AJo, KJo+

      AA has 61,3% equity

      second case:
      99-33, A6s, 86s+, 76s, 65s, 54s, 43s, 32s, A6o, 87o, 76o, 65o, 54o

      KK has 42,7% equity

      what do you think about these ranges?
    • alderfalder
      alderfalder
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 16.01.2010 Posts: 1,994
      seems pretty solid actually. Assuming he is shoving some kind of range there should be better than just thinking:"does he have it or not?"

      That you rarely see random purebluffs is true if I remember right.
      Above I was writing as if I would be folding a lot. True is, that I gamble a lot vs fish, so I called both.

      Both hands villains showed me were in your range (or in second case almost in your range^^).

      It's hard to guess what fish's range actually look like, so if there are some more experienced guys can write what they've seen so far would be gr8, to getting a feeling whether these ranges are more or less realistic or not:)
    • Lackoogcb
      Lackoogcb
      Black
      Joined: 16.04.2008 Posts: 1,648
      I think it is always about history and paying attention, you can decide he tilts so hard or not. If you just sat down to the table I would be on a tight side and fold in close situations

      but when they tilt so hard:

      haha
    • Lackoogcb
      Lackoogcb
      Black
      Joined: 16.04.2008 Posts: 1,648
      I have a similar question:

      what should we do when we are 400bb and the fish as well, he calls anything preflop, so we 20bb 3bet w AA and he calls. Flop comes: QJJs, and he is SUPER agro, x/r a lot even with air, barelling, x/overbet shoving nuts / pure bluffs, etc. What we should do on flop IP? I don't really want to bet/broke 400bb :) checkback and let him doublebarell? or valuebet 2 str?

      and what can we do when we are even OOP?
    • tolari
      tolari
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2010 Posts: 761
      bet/call flop, call turn call river - reload/do a happy dance :D
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      this is a 3bet pot. I don't see how this isn't a snap? Given SPR he can have so many worse hands like AQ KQ KT T9s etc. Fishes love bluffing at paired flops too.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      2nd hand is closer, now it's a single raised pot, draw is rainbow and super coordinated. He has around 60BB which is around the cut off point for me to call it off. If he did this with 80bb+ i think this would definitely be a fold for me, if he has 50bb or less I think i would see many worse overpairs or top pairs pretty often so I would call.
    • fusionpk
      fusionpk
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.01.2010 Posts: 1,683
      Originally posted by mbml
      2nd hand is closer, now it's a single raised pot, draw is rainbow and super coordinated. He has around 60BB which is around the cut off point for me to call it off. If he did this with 80bb+ i think this would definitely be a fold for me, if he has 50bb or less I think i would see many worse overpairs or top pairs pretty often so I would call.
      perfect imo