Waiting for Mr. Variance

    • canniballsy
      canniballsy
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.04.2012 Posts: 119
      So these last few days my luck at the virtual felt has been unbelievably good. I have won really big chunk of cash as a result. But this run of good luck has made me sad :( . Why you ask? Because I know a very ugly variance is awaiting me round the corner. My question is when it finally comes how should I deal with it? Any tips anyone? Just preparing myself for the storm :)
  • 12 replies
    • zumpar
      zumpar
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.02.2012 Posts: 1,185
      :D i know what u mean.... firstly there is no guarantee u will now start running bad, just because ur running like a god now, chances are u will be running good and above EV forever..

      happened to me twice,
      first on NL10 (doesnt look so big, but i was running great and then baaaam.... 19BI's down in like 6k hands)
      and now on NL50 (thank god im still running above EV pretty good :D )



      both times i was like expecting to hit a downswing, cause i was just running so good it "wasnt meant to last forever"

      thing about this is, its all in your head, cause ur expecting it to happen and are afraif of it, and now that u randomly lose a few BI's u just think "this is it" and play bad, tilted, etc, which just makes u to lose more

      every hand u play is absolutely "new" and undependent of the previous onse u played... just like roulette spins. if the last one was red, doesnt mean now there is a bigger probability for hitting a black after that....

      but yeah, when the good old "downswing" hits, just grind through it with breaks (def take breaks) and hope it turn back to normal soon ;)
    • x3mwisp
      x3mwisp
      Platinum
      Joined: 31.03.2009 Posts: 3,604
      Did you know that future events do not rely on past events? That is called gambler's fallacy or Monte Carlo effect. Search for more on Wikipedia.
    • canniballsy
      canniballsy
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.04.2012 Posts: 119
      Originally posted by zumpar
      thing about this is, its all in your head, cause ur expecting it to happen and are afraif of it, and now that u randomly lose a few BI's u just think "this is it" and play bad, tilted, etc, which just makes u to lose more.
      Actually this is also what I am afraid of the most as well. Even though I am running like God now, I still get the few here and there bad beats, but I almost cover it in the next few hands. But the fact is even those bad beats make me wonder "has it started yet?" It hampers my A game.
    • canniballsy
      canniballsy
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.04.2012 Posts: 119
      Originally posted by x3mwisp
      Did you know that future events do not rely on past events? That is called gambler's fallacy or Monte Carlo effect. Search for more on Wikipedia.
      Really?
      I thought if you are running good then logic dictates you should run bad sooner or later to balance it out.
    • tommygecko
      tommygecko
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.08.2012 Posts: 1,229
      Originally posted by canniballsy
      Originally posted by x3mwisp
      Did you know that future events do not rely on past events? That is called gambler's fallacy or Monte Carlo effect. Search for more on Wikipedia.
      Really?
      I thought if you are running good then logic dictates you should run bad sooner or later to balance it out.
      No. Flip a coin 99 times. 99 times it landed on heads. For the 100th flip, what's the chance of the coin landing on tails? 99%? No. Still 50%

      Likewise in poker, cards have no memory. It's a misconception that variance 'evens out'.
    • CharlesPkR
      CharlesPkR
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.12.2008 Posts: 7,362
      I don't think the variance is a man.
    • RasTweet
      RasTweet
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.12.2009 Posts: 4,553
      Originally posted by zumpar
      :D i know what u mean.... firstly there is no guarantee u will now start running bad,
      Oh no once you say you run like God you're going to run shit the day after! Just by making this thread he flicked the doomswitch :coolface:

      Just joking.

      On a more serious note: read articles, watch vids... about mindset and about variance. Understand what variance is and embrace it, don't try to fight it! Also you might wanna look into tilt. If you run bad there could be a chance that you're going to tilt.

      Regards

      RasTweet
    • canniballsy
      canniballsy
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.04.2012 Posts: 119
      Originally posted by CharlesPkR
      I don't think the variance is a man.
      Well if you mean Variance is a b***h then yeah its a Ms. :)
      Sorry for the crude banter.
    • UPAY4DINNER
      UPAY4DINNER
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.09.2009 Posts: 21,923
      Originally posted by CharlesPkR
      I don't think the variance is a man.
      Agreed - the swings lead me to believe it has female attributes ;)
    • thesundancekid
      thesundancekid
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.05.2011 Posts: 151
      Yes i have , believe me this is from personal experience.

      WHEN!!! you hit your dowswing you have to start playing smaller games , games that wont affect your bankroll to much.

      Also you have to try and adapt a mental game of poker as there is so much to poker than just playing cards.

      If you every feel like the card are not going your way and your getting bad beat after bad beat, quit playing for that day, or take a break for a while.
    • maythany
      maythany
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.10.2011 Posts: 1,189
      I don't wait for Mr. Variance.
    • Jafreiteris
      Jafreiteris
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.05.2008 Posts: 283
      Everybody is mad

      Oh no i ruuuun bad.

      Oh noo i am break even.

      Ohhhh no i am run good.