[NL20-NL50] [NL50] 99 flopped set

    • ains21
      Joined: 04.06.2011 Posts: 303

      Villain is 29/22/6.5 reg (4.3k hands) who I consider to be fairly decent/aggressive. Stats are as follows:

      Fold to c-bet on flop: 52
      Fold to c-bet on turn: 16
      Raise c-bet on turn: 24 (22)
      Turn agg%: 30
      River agg%: 25

      So flop is std ofc. On the turn when we get raised, he's super wide here. He could have 44/55 I guess, but many FD/TJ/KT/KJ/J8s or T9 turning into bluff.

      Do you think its more profitable here to 3b and charge his FD/SD or just tank-call and check the river to him? If we 3b are we 3b/5bing AI here for 200bb (I suppose so since we expect him to 3b QQ pre, but what does he think we'd be going broke with)?

      If we call turn and check river to him expecting him to bet all busted draws (there are so many), what do you re-raise to? We get called by: 44/55/QQ/AA and maybe some AQ.

      Does he have AA/QQ here so few times that it is always auto raise river for us?


      Party, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      CO: $123.58 (247.2 bb)
      SB: $57.97 (115.9 bb)
      BTN: $14.50 (29 bb)
      MP: $138.76 (277.5 bb)
      BB: $78.61 (157.2 bb)
      Hero (UTG): $98.62 (197.2 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is UTG with 9 9
      Hero raises to $1.29, MP folds, CO calls $1.29, 3 folds

      Flop: ($3.33) 4 9 Q (2 players)
      Hero bets $2.37, CO calls $2.37

      Turn: ($8.07) 5 (2 players)
      Hero bets $5.75, CO raises to $16, Hero calls $10.25

      River: ($40.07) A (2 players)
      Hero checks, CO bets $29, Hero ???
  • 1 reply
    • EmanuelC16
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897

      What's his 3bet against UTG? We need to think whether or not he has QQ in his range.

      If he does 3bet QQ preflop we have the nuts and it's all about deciding how to get money in. If villain never folds a set on the turn, I think our play should be to shove. Not 3bet smaller, just shove. A shove looks more like trying to generate folding equity with a hand like A9hh, JThh, etc. If you 3bet small you would rely on him shoving very often with his set which is less likely than him calling. If you think he can ship light against a smaller 3bet, smaller sizing is better.

      As played, when you reach the river, I think all his sets bet/fold so you never get called. You represent QQ/AA extremely well with your line when you check/shove that turn. You need him to not be as good as you think to call 3rd 4th set 200bb deep against a river check/shove at NL50 imo.