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[NL20-NL50] NL25 SH: low set vs river raise

    • Kruppe
      Joined: 20.02.2008 Posts: 2,145
      Full Tilt Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players - Hand History Converter

      UTG: $20.30
      CO: $25
      BTN: $23.25
      SB: $45.15
      Kruppe (BB): $30

      Pre-Flop: 4:heart: 4:diamond: dealt to Kruppe (BB)
      UTG raises to $0.85, 3 folds, Kruppe calls $0.60

      Flop: ($1.80) T:club: 4:spade: Q:spade: (2 Players)
      Kruppe checks, UTG checks

      Turn: ($1.80) T:club: 4:spade: Q:spade: [ K:heart: ] (2 Players)
      Kruppe bets $1.50, UTG calls $1.50

      River: ($4.80) T:club: 4:spade: Q:spade: K:heart: [ 7:club: ] (2 Players)
      Kruppe bets $3.50, UTG raises to $17.95 and is All-In, Kruppe calls $14.45

      don't think i should fold this, but what hands does he raise with that i beat?
  • 3 replies
    • swissmoumout
      Joined: 23.02.2007 Posts: 3,385
      Hi Kruppe,
      I would call. You can easily assume villain is a fish (80bb stack), so even assigning him a tight range - TT, QQ, KK, AA, AJ, KQ, KTs - you will be ahead about 40% of the time, making a call profitable. Ocassionally he'll even have worse, so I'd call this every time. Bad luck if he had you beat.

    • Kruppe
      Joined: 20.02.2008 Posts: 2,145
      The problem for me is that KK, AA, KQ and KTs (the hands I can beat) seem unlikely to me because I think the opponent would have bet the flop with those hands.
      Should I ignore this?
    • kukac26
      Joined: 02.11.2007 Posts: 126
      How about you betting the flop there? Bottom set is not weak, but it's no slowplaya either (two spades there and straight draw, too)...

      The problem gets resolved fast and relatively painless if he C/R you with his set (TT and QQ are sure to be inside his range). I doubt he would raise you there with AQ or worse..

      If he'd ahead of a tight player's range in about 40% how does that make the call profitable.. almost 50% of his money is sitting there?

      But I agree, .1/.25$ are wild and you probably have to call anything with any set (I wish we'd have some reads on the villain, hard to shoot blind)