Making a counter semi bluff in blind battle

    • sim5sim5
      sim5sim5
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.10.2011 Posts: 655
      Preflop: Hero is SB with 7, J.
      4 folds, Hero raises, BB calls.

      Flop: (4 SB) 2, A, A (2 players)
      Hero bets, BB raises, Hero calls.

      Turn: (4 BB) 3 (2 players)
      Hero checks, BB bets, Hero ?

      Lets say both are normal players & villian can have a pair or A or just took a agressive line on flop by making a flop bluff raise IP on a board which can make us fold on later street against his aggresion

      Do u think we have a good spot on turn to make a counter semi bluff to make villian fold?

      Now putting yourself on villian shoes

      1. Will you go for a flop bluff raise IP with week SD value ? say in % how many times u will raise on such board against blind stealing
      2. With A in hand will you wait for turn raise ?
      3. What u will do against turn c/r raise with

      a. small to mid pairs
      b. KQ,KT
      c. week SD value
  • 7 replies
    • YohanN7
      YohanN7
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2009 Posts: 4,086
      Here is one argument against a bluff: You are getting 5:1 to call + perhaps 1 bet more on average -> 6:1. Thus a mere call on the turn is by quite some margin better than folding. By bluffing you reduce your odds quite a lot (to something like 5:2 or 2:1 if you plan to barrel the river). You must have pretty big fold equity for a bluff to be better than calling.

      /Johan = :f_confused:
    • redskwerl
      redskwerl
      Black
      Joined: 03.03.2008 Posts: 3,802
      Originally posted by YohanN7
      Here is one argument against a bluff: You are getting 5:1 to call + perhaps 1 bet more on average -> 6:1. Thus a mere call on the turn is by quite some margin better than folding. By bluffing you reduce your odds quite a lot (to something like 5:2 or 2:1 if you plan to barrel the river). You must have pretty big fold equity for a bluff to be better than calling.
      wouldn't this same logic apply to any semibluff situation? raising always offers worse odds than calling.
    • YohanN7
      YohanN7
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2009 Posts: 4,086
      Originally posted by redskwerl
      Originally posted by YohanN7
      Here is one argument against a bluff: You are getting 5:1 to call + perhaps 1 bet more on average -> 6:1. Thus a mere call on the turn is by quite some margin better than folding. By bluffing you reduce your odds quite a lot (to something like 5:2 or 2:1 if you plan to barrel the river). You must have pretty big fold equity for a bluff to be better than calling.
      wouldn't this same logic apply to any semibluff situation? raising always offers worse odds than calling.
      Yes, you are right. The odds aren't the relevant thing really. One should count the EV in bets.

      I like semibluffing more when a call would be marginal, or even bad because the bluff part (folding equity) goes way up in value. What I mean is that a 0-EV or slightly -EV play (calling) may often be turned into +EV by raising. Here calling is already very +EV. I'm not sure we can get even better EV by raising in this spot. It would depend on the opponent.

      But there are arguments for raising too, sure. Our SD value is pretty bad, so a fold from the opponent would be very tasty.

      /Johan = :f_confused:
    • Boomer2k10
      Boomer2k10
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.09.2010 Posts: 2,551
      If you are going to peel this flop x/r you have to bluff the turn, doing otherwise makes no sense because you don't have the odds just to peel for your outs and this is going to be one of the weakest hands in your range making it absolutely perfect/mandatory to semi-bluff

      If you had a hand like K or Q-High then calling the turn is fine becasue you have Sd value and to raise all your FD's would be both predictable and overbluffy
    • sim5sim5
      sim5sim5
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.10.2011 Posts: 655
      What about your action if you are in villian spot ?
    • Boomer2k10
      Boomer2k10
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.09.2010 Posts: 2,551
      Originally posted by sim5sim5
      What about your action if you are in villian spot ?
      a) Call down
      b) I wouldn't raise this on the flop so moot point
      c) I'm assuming you mean a 2 here. Assuming I raise some 2's they would probably be the bottom of my value range and thus a bet/fold on the turn (i.e. the worst 2s in my range)
    • YohanN7
      YohanN7
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2009 Posts: 4,086
      EDIT: Never mind. The answer is in your post. :)


      Originally posted by Boomer2k10
      If you are going to peel this flop x/r you have to bluff the turn, doing otherwise makes no sense because you don't have the odds just to peel for your outs and this is going to be one of the weakest hands in your range making it absolutely perfect/mandatory to semi-bluff

      If you had a hand like K or Q-High then calling the turn is fine becasue you have Sd value and to raise all your FD's would be both predictable and overbluffy
      Why mandatory to bluff turn?

      I think that the turn card changes things. At the turn spot it doesn't matter much how we got there in my opinion. [Why possibly compound possible previous mistakes?] Should we bluff turn given the board layout (and nothing else) or not?

      /Johan = :f_confused: