[NL20-NL50] NL50 SH - 33: under set vs skip cbet/raise

    • Lunitis
      Lunitis
      Gold
      Joined: 22.02.2009 Posts: 20,132
      25/21
      23% OR utg
      2.5 af
      51% cbet flop
      47% skip cbet/fold
      26% agg% river
      10% donkbet river
      44% wwsf
      13k hands

      Notecaddy: in a very similar board 873r he didnt cbet and raise top set. Dont know what happened after.


      MP: $25 (50 bb)
      Hero (CO): $50.44 (100.9 bb)
      BTN: $24.35 (48.7 bb)
      SB: $15.02 (30 bb)
      BB: $31.42 (62.8 bb)
      UTG: $55.65 (111.3 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is CO with 3:spade: 3:club:
      UTG raises to $1.50, MP folds, Hero calls $1.50, 3 folds

      Flop: ($3.75) 7:club: 3:heart: 9:spade: (2 players)
      UTG checks, Hero bets $2.50, UTG raises to $6, Hero calls $3.50

      Turn: ($15.75) 5:club: (2 players)
      UTG checks, Hero bets $8, UTG calls $8

      River: ($31.75) 6:club: (2 players)
      UTG bets $18.50, Hero
  • 7 replies
    • cutegoldfish
      cutegoldfish
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.11.2009 Posts: 4,335
      Flop - what could he check raise with? If he does not check raise a set then I'm guessing it's usually draws here maybe once a while an overpair.

      Turn - cb for value, maybe bigger against his over pairs like 12 and set up a bigger bet on river for

      River - 4 isn't exactly in his range and backdoor flush is rare. I think his hand played like that is half the time weirdly played flush and straight and the other half overpair so I think we can call here.

      Cgf
    • Lunitis
      Lunitis
      Gold
      Joined: 22.02.2009 Posts: 20,132
      Flop - what could he check raise with? If he does not check raise a set then I'm guessing it's usually draws here maybe once a while an overpair.


      Notecaddy: in a very similar board 873r he didnt cbet and raise top set. Dont know what happened after.


      Im not cbeting on the flop. He have the initiative.
    • cutegoldfish
      cutegoldfish
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.11.2009 Posts: 4,335
      thanks for the info, i think its still the same, adjusted evaluation to reflect stronger range.

      Flop - what could he check raise with? If he does not check raise a set then I'm guessing it's half the time draws here and half the time overpair.

      Turn - bet bigger for value, this card does not hit his range, maybe 12 is good.

      River - I think its mostly overpair here and seldom sets, weirdly played flush and straight but i don't think we have thin value against his overpairs and would be isolating against the flush and straight if we raise, so its a call here.

      cgf
    • Lunitis
      Lunitis
      Gold
      Joined: 22.02.2009 Posts: 20,132
      Im confused...
      Why do you say he dont play like that with set? ... notecaddy spoted him doing that in a similar spot with top set...
    • cutegoldfish
      cutegoldfish
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.11.2009 Posts: 4,335
      I thought your note meant he did not check and did not raise with set. So it means he check raised with set as PFR?

      and his range is unlikely to have sets because 77 and 99 is a small part of his range it's just so rare for him to hit and more often he has something else like over pairs
    • Lunitis
      Lunitis
      Gold
      Joined: 22.02.2009 Posts: 20,132
      The read say he check the flop and raise with top set in a similar board with the initiative (PFR). The only time he did that (not cbeting and raising after float) and the hand went to showdown he had top set on the flop.
    • cutegoldfish
      cutegoldfish
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.11.2009 Posts: 4,335
      while its possible he has top set here like 77 or 99 i still think its rare, there is possibly much more overpairs and overcards that could check/raise the flop.