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[NL20-NL50] [NL50] QQ 4b pot

    • ains21
      Joined: 04.06.2011 Posts: 303

      Villain is 20/16/9.5 reg (3.7k hands) who defends his blinds very wide. Hero will be 4bing in this spot super wide with many blockers.

      3b SBvsBU: 19
      3b SBvsBU (vs Hero): 26 (46)
      Raise flop single raised pot: 23
      Raise flop 3b pot: 25 (8)
      5b SB: 17 (6)

      His 3b range is ofc full of crap here (such a high % vs my BU open) and his flatting range I think looks something like this (considering we are little deeper): JJ-22, ATs, A5s-A2s, KJs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s.

      Do you think this is a reasonable estimate? I include most of these hands since he will want some nutted potential being slightly deeper and flatting OOP here vs. my wide 4b range.

      On the flop when he shoves I don't think he'd do this with sets, but would rather make a 2-2.5x c/r trying to look like a cheap bluff, and hope I shove lots of over pairs. Also it's super hard from him to have QJ here since we block Qs and he probably flats QJs pre, and doesn't call 4b OOP w QJo.

      So I think maybe we have the following equity:

      Board: 9:club: 8:diamond: T:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    60.81%  60.28%   0.53% { QdQh }
      MP3    39.19%  38.66%   0.53% { JJ, 77, KJs, J9s+, T9s, 98s, 76s }

      Snap call? Do you put sets in his range here?

      Party, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      MP: $50.75 (101.5 bb)
      SB: $69.14 (138.3 bb)
      UTG: $12.25 (24.5 bb)
      BB: $17.50 (35 bb)
      CO: $24.09 (48.2 bb)
      Hero (BTN): $59.42 (118.8 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BTN with Q Q
      3 folds, Hero raises to $1.29, SB raises to $4, BB folds, Hero raises to $10, SB calls $6

      Flop: ($20.50) T 9 8 (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $9.74, SB raises to $59.14 and is all-in
  • 1 reply
    • EmanuelC16
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,909

      I think the preflop range you have him is reasonable, apart from the really small pairs. This deep, I don't think he'd 3bet them. It's 120bb so he cannot 3bet/shove them anymore plus he gets called so much more often.

      I would also include KK+ in his range very often actually. I would put his range to be something like this:

      Board: T:heart: 9:club: 8:diamond:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    50.87%  49.06%   1.80% { QdQh }
      MP3    49.13%  47.33%   1.80% { TT+, AJs, KJs-KTs, QTs, J7s+, T8s+, 98s, 87s }

      It still makes it a call, biggest difference is adding TT+ instead of just JJ. Even if we add more sets, you still get the odds to call. It was not a question here, you invested so much in a pot, you have overpair and gutshot with very little money behind so it would be a call 99% of the time but it's good to know how often you actually should expect to win. Basically, you win about half of the time imo, maybe a bit less. It's very hard to give an accurate range for our opponent but figuring out our equity is doable.