[NL20-NL50] [NL50] 98s

    • ains21
      ains21
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.06.2011 Posts: 303
      Hello.

      Villain is 20/16/9.5 reg (3.7k hands) who I perceive to be fairly tricky post-flop and capable of making decent plays. Hero will be perceived as capable of bluffing this kind turn with his made hands and floats, as has been called down doing so before.

      C-bet flop: 75
      C-bet turn: 62
      Fold flop c-bet to raise: 35
      Fold turn c-bet to raise: 29

      Flatting pre I think is fine here since we're deep and don't want to isolate myself against stronger hands (he will call 3b wide here). I don't like raising flop since I think he would 3b often here repping strong UTG range and he knows that I am capable of bluffing raising a lot of flops.

      I believe his turn bet/calling range to look something like this: JJ+,77-33. What do you think? Should we make our raise here larger being so deep? If yes, do you think that having our bluffs larger in this spot is also a good thing (more FE)?

      On the river, do you think he ever leads a worse hand here? The sizing looks like value bet from FH, and I don't imagine he leads 44 here or turns any hand we beat into a bluff (JJ+).

      Thanks judges!

      Party, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      UTG: $148.51 (297 bb)
      SB: $51.72 (103.4 bb)
      BTN: $37.95 (75.9 bb)
      CO: $23.73 (47.5 bb)
      BB: $50.50 (101 bb)
      Hero (MP): $106.99 (214 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is MP with 8 9
      UTG raises to $1.51, Hero calls $1.51, 4 folds

      Flop: ($3.77) 7 6 3 (2 players)
      UTG bets $2.69, Hero calls $2.69

      Turn: ($9.15) 5 (2 players)
      UTG bets $6.52, Hero raises to $18.50, UTG calls $11.98

      River: ($46.15) 5 (2 players)
      UTG bets $32.88, Hero ???
  • 1 reply
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      Hey,

      Since you are deep in MP I much favour 3bet over flat. You want to isolate him and be IP postflop against him imo. I would flat in BU for example but in MP you just get others to tag along too often.

      Postflop, I think raising flop is better. When you just flat the flop you rarely have a set imo since you are deep. Therefore you look like medium hand or draw. I don't think calling is bad but my thinking about deepstack play is to put a lot more pressure on opponents with any hand you continue.

      On the turn, I would raise bigger, to about 23. I would personally not have 4x in my range here so it makes most sense to use a big sizing when my range is 89s or air. Obv, perception is very important: can we make bluffs cheaper with same FE? I don't see myself as having many bluffs here in real range but my perceived range should have quite a bit therefore I would use a big sizing. Plus, you are deep, you get called by sets because they believe they have implied odds.

      This brings me to the river. For me it's always a fold, I'm a nit. I would rather make bad laydowns sometimes because those laydowns are rarer than bad calls. He literally played it like a set, if he doesn't turn JJ+ into a bluff he has FH+ too often here.