[NL20-NL50] [NL50] AA top set

    • ains21
      Joined: 04.06.2011 Posts: 303

      Villain is 19/16 reg (10k hands) who I play with often and is fit or fold post-flop more than any other reg I know. He tends to bet big and barrel often with value, and simply ch/f when he misses. Hero is percieved as capable of bluff raising flops/turns, and has been seen to turn made hands into bluff (but not too out of line).

      Fold to 3-bet: 48
      Fold to 3-bet UTG vs. SB: 53

      C-bet flop: 51
      C-bet turn: 43
      Fold flop c-bet to raise: 38
      Fold turn c-bet to raise: 44

      What do you think of flatting here instead of raising? I note BB is aggro 11.8 3b/11 SQ mid stacker who can easily SQ here. I think I like flatting more since my range would be pretty strong 3bing here, and sometimes BB SQ/UTG calls/we fist pump. Also hand is nicely disguised in deep pot.

      Obv flop is nice and we want to extract value. What you is game plan vs. his value range? Raising flop I think we may do with 99/TT/ATs since it isn't too nice to see another K/Q/J on the turn, though we probably fold out some KK/QQ which might call river lead after checking behind turn. Since villain rarely has Ax here, is calling better?

      Raising turn std I think since he is stronger here and FD possible. Also we could be turning some hands into bluffs here sometimes (unlikely) or raising KQss/KJss/QJss and others. Should we have made turn bigger so that we had closer to pot size shove on river?

      Do you like river over shove? I think we can rep busted draws here often. He never has KJ here I think, except KJss (maybe).

      Party, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      MP: $18.75 (37.5 bb)
      BTN: $48.18 (96.4 bb)
      BB: $28 (56 bb)
      CO: $49.75 (99.5 bb)
      UTG: $86.87 (173.7 bb)
      Hero (SB): $100.11 (200.2 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is SB with A A
      UTG raises to $2, 3 folds, Hero calls $1.75, BB folds

      Flop: ($4.50) A T 9 (2 players)
      Hero checks, UTG bets $3.21, Hero calls $3.21

      Turn: ($10.92) 3 (2 players)
      Hero checks, UTG bets $7.78, Hero raises to $21, UTG calls $13.22

      River: ($52.92) Q (2 players)
      Hero bets $73.90
  • 2 replies
    • DarkAwi
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 3,285
      Preflop I usually 3bet, because he doesn't fold much, I'd like calling more if we are IP. Since he is IP here, we can expect a lot of calls from him. Also, he is not a barreling maniac, only bets if he hits, so we don't have too much implied odds.

      Postflop he doesn't cbet much, and doesn't fold vs raise, so I think you can start building the pot on the flop (check/raise), we can get 1-2 calls from AJ+ type hands I guess (and cooler his 2p+, before board gets ugly) and maybe he calls with weaker draws too because you are deep, and he has more IO.

      As played you should raise bigger, to shove river without ovb. What do you think his turn bet/calling range is ? I think with sets he will 3bet, and calls with AT-AK, KsJs, KsQs. If he is not capable of big herocalls, I don't think this overbet is good, since it's only get called by KsJs, it's very rare tho, but if no weaker hands can call, then no point. But if you think he is calling with sets on turn, to let you bluff the river, or can make big herocalls then ovb shove could be good. But I think ppl usually won't make big herocalls this deep, unless you have a very maniac image (which I doubt)
    • EmanuelC16
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897

      We have a couple of things that don't go together here. He doesn't fold preflop that often and you are also deep which makes him even less likely to fold but you just call. I think that's not the best play. Then postflop, you think he only bets his made hands but opt to just call. I can understand this more than preflop, however, you are deep, you need to build a pot already.

      You raise the turn, where the flop has almost no possible floats to bluff turn therefore, you rep only value hands. You get a call. It doesn't go together imo to say he doesn't like folding so I won't raise him because we are deep when you have the nuts. If you want to slowplay, do it until the river and c/r there imo, you can rep hands turned into bluffs and he could catch up with making 2pair or smth.

      Preferably though, just 3bet preflop and go from there, you are just too deep to flat.